South by Southwest 2013 Underway

band2The annual festivities began Friday night.  Unfortunately Friday night and much of Saturday was marred by a much-needed rainfall.  The weather cleared Sunday.  This image shows a band performing off 6th Street.

Drone Warfare Update

How the U.S. Concluded Killing Anwar al-Awlaki Was O.K.

Reuters
Connor Simpson 2,317 Views Mar 9, 2013

The September 2011 drone strike that killed American citizens Anwar al-Awlaki and Samir Kahn has been the focus of intense debate for the last three years. Now, thanks to a new report from The New York Times, we know how the U.S. concluded killing al-Awlaki was justifiable.

This week, Rand Paul held up the Senate’s confirming of John Brennan’s CIA director nomination by demanding the President promise not to kill American citizens’ on American soil with drone strikes. Al-Awlaki was brought up then, too. He and his 16-year-old son were both killed by drone strikes in Yemen. The New York Times‘ Mark Mazzetti, Charlie Savage and Scott Shane just released a thorough, extensively reported story documenting how the Obama administration tracked, found, justified and killed al-Awlaki as he hid in Yemen.

We had already seen parts of the administration’s legal justification for killing al-Awlaki, an American citizen on Yemeni soil. We know that, American or not, “senior operational leaders” of al Qaeda or “an associated force” would be targeted by the administration’s drones. But we now know how they came to justify letting it happen.

David Barron and Martin Lederman were the lawyers tasked with justifying targeting al-Awlaki. They had to figure out whether the administration would be able to kill him with a drone strike if they were unable to capture him. Their initial memo boiled down to the fact that al-Awlaki was a bad guy, and bad guys are targets in the war on terror. It was simple enough, but they realized it wouldn’t hold up to the kind of scrutiny they knew this decision could face. They started drafting a second memo that they felt would justify killing an American on foreign soil in the war on terror. They stumbled on a law blog discussing “a statute barring Americans from killing Americans overseas,” that required them to narrow their focus. Eventually, they found the previously existing court decision they needed to give the Pentagon and C.I.A. the go ahead to target al-Awlaki:

As they researched the rarely invoked overseas-murder statute, Mr. Barron and Mr. Lederman discovered a 1997 district court decision involving a woman who was charged with killing her child in Japan. A judge ruled that the terse overseas-killing law must be interpreted as incorporating the exceptions of its domestic-murder counterpart, writing, “Congress did not intend to criminalize justifiable or excusable killings.”

And by arguing that it is not unlawful “murder” when the government kills an enemy leader in war or national self-defense, Mr. Barron and Mr. Lederman concluded that the foreign-killing statute would not impede a strike.

The administration had they needed. The secret drone base in Saudi Arabia was ready, and they eventually had intel on al-Awlaki’s location. Drones were sent out, an American was killed, and the administration has been answering questions about it ever since. If you read anything this weekend, it really should be this story.

Want to add to this story? Let us know in comments or send an email to the author at connorbsimpson@gmail.com. You can share ideas for stories on the Open Wire.

More Thoughts on Google Glass

 

Google Glass: getting to grips with ‘geek aesthetics’

Wearable tech excites inventors and investors – but doesn’t always look good. Now the race is on to give the new gadgets a more stylish image

Ashton Kutcher at Warby Parker event

How Google Glass might look? Warby Parker co-founders Dave Gilboa (left) and Neil Blumenthal (right) with film star Ashton Kutcher at a publicity event for the eyewear brand in Los Angeles. Photograph: Charley Gallay/WireImage

It’s hip, it’s hot, but does it look any good? Wearable technology is becoming one of the most exciting parts of the technology sector, inspiring designers to come up with new inventions and attracting investors eager to pour cash into potential money-spinning ideas.

From Google Glass spectacles that let you surf the web as you walk down the street, to golf gloves that tell you how to swing better, or a smart shirt that can measure your temperature and cool you down, it is a rapidly expanding field.

But amid all the hoopla about what “wearable tech” might actually do for consumers, an equally important debate has emerged over what one might call “geek aesthetics”. Forget function: think fashion. Many experts now believe the fortunes in the wearable tech sector will be made as much by making people look cool as by actually performing a useful service.

“Why would anyone need most of these things?” said Chris Matyszczyk, a writer at tech site CNet. “So the biggest question is going to be whether or not they look good when you put them on.”

It is not a minor issue. Google Glass is probably the most hyped piece of wearable tech at the moment. The internet search firm has asked people to apply to wear its revolutionary device – which can let people send emails, search the internet or take pictures via voice commands and a tiny screen – as they go about their daily lives. But one wearer of a type of hi-tech glasses similar to Google’s – wearable-tech pioneer Steve Mann of the University of Toronto – said recently he was assaulted in a Paris fast food restaurant because of them.

Clearly, therefore, image is everything, especially in a world that can still be unkind to geeky people venturing out in public wearing their latest invention. Even Google co-founder Sergey Brin has found this out the hard way: when a picture was taken of him sitting on a New York subway train wearing his Google Glass eyepiece, it prompted a ripple of mockery among many commentators. “Sergey Brin looked terrible. He was just a nerd on the subway,” said Matyszczyk. Perhaps mindful of such concerns, Google is reported to be close to striking a deal with ultra-trendy glasses-maker Warby Parker to make the frames for Google Glass. The New York firm, which sells “vintage-inspired” designs, has rapidly become one of the hottest names in eyewear. Fashion-conscious sophisticates might be nervous of wearing a Google design, but not Warby Parker specs that can do the same things.

Google's Sergey Brin wearing Google Glass Google’s Sergey Brin wearing Google Glass. Photograph: Robert Galbraith/Reuters In fact, form has long been the equal of function in tech: the main beneficiary of that being Apple. The company’s trademark reliance on elegant design has helped it become a global behemoth, every bit as much as the actual usefulness of its smartphones. “Apple have been the best on this,” said Matyszczyk. “But there is a difference between the look of something that you carry and something that you wear.”

For advocates of wearable tech’s potential, there is a possible jackpot waiting for those who get it right. Apple itself is now developing a “smart watch” and is keen to make something beautiful that consumers feel they must have. “Any successful product in wearable tech needs to be trendy,” said Nitin Bhas, an analyst with Juniper Research.

Budding fashion designers will certainly have a lot of potential products to toy with, some of which are so futuristic that they seem almost unreal. There are gloves that can turn your fingers into a phone, jeans that have skin moisturisers built in, and even a wristband that monitors your nervous system and can tell you when you need to calm down.

Sabine Seymour, author of the book Fashionable Technology: The Intersection of Design, Fashion, Science, and Technology, is one of the most cutting-edge thinkers and designers in the field. She is working on blending fashion aesthetics with nanoscience and chemical engineering. “It is a new wave. People are looking for something new and I am glad to be a part of it,” Seymour said.

Scientists are looking at making fabrics that can absorb poisonous gases or harmful bacteria, or conduct electricity, and be used to make stylish garments. “It has also got to look good. If I find something that I really think looks beautiful, I will wear it all the time,” Seymour said.

She thinks that wearable tech will be fairly mainstream in about five years’ time. But it is already getting there in certain sectors. In health and fitness, devices that can monitor your heart rate or measure the distance you have run are already a common sight in gyms around the world, strapped to waists or wrists or fitted in shoes.

Meanwhile, Google Glass is poised to launch its spectacles commercially by the end of this year. The fashion world, it seems, is now going hand-in-hand with futuristic science.

Technology Conundrum

Evgeny Morozov: ‘We are abandoning all the checks and balances’
Technology writer Evgeny Morozov on the political dangers of the internet, why newspapers are great – and his personal means of escape

Evgeny Morozov is a Belarus-born technology writer who has held positions at Stanford and Georgetown universities in the US. His first book, The Net Delusion, argued that “Western do-gooders may have missed how [the internet]… entrenches dictators, threatens dissidents, and makes it harder – not easier –to promote democracy”. It was described as “brilliant and courageous” by the New York Times. In his second book To Save Everything, Click Here, Morozov critiques what he calls “solutionism” – the idea that given the right code, algorithms and robots, technology can solve all of mankind’s problems, effectively making life “frictionless” and trouble-free. Morozov argues that this drive to eradicate imperfection and make everything “efficient” shuts down other avenues of progress and leads ultimately to an algorithm-driven world where Silicon Valley, rather than elected governments, determines the shape of the future.

Some of the technologies you describe as “solutionist” many people find useful. For instance self-tracking gadgets that encourage people to exercise, to monitor their blood pressure or warn them about their driving habits and reduce their insurance premiums.

The people who start self-tracking are successful and have nothing to lose. If you can self-track and prove you are better than the average person – are healthier or drive more safely – you can get a better deal and claim some benefits. Yet eventually we will reach the point where people who decide not to self-track are assumed to be people who have something to hide. Then they have no choice but to start self-tracking. Very often the people of Silicon Valley who promote these technologies say we have the choice, we have complete autonomy, and I am saying this a myth.

But they can still solve problems?

Very often self-tracking solutions are marketed as ways to address a problem. You can monitor how many calories you consume; monitor how much electricity you are consuming. It sounds nice in theory but I fear a lot of policymakers prefer to use the self-tracking option as an alternative to regulating the food industry or engaging in more structural reforms when it comes to climate change.

All solutions come with cost. Shifting a lot of the responsibility to the individual is a very conservative approach that seeks to preserve the current system instead of reforming it. With self-tracking we end up optimising our behaviour within the existing constraints rather than changing the constraints to begin with. It places us as consumers rather than citizens. My fear is policymakers will increasingly find that it is much easier, cheaper and sexier to invite the likes of Google to engage in some of this problem-solving rather than do something that is much more ambitious and radical.

You talk about how “smart” devices are making us dumb…

They are not bound to make us dumb, but the way they are currently implemented makes that a possibility. We need to know what we want from such devices: Do we want them to obviate problem solving? To make our lives frictionless? Or do we want these new devices to enhance our problem solving – not to make problems disappear but assist us with solving them?

A lot of these devices seek to reward or punish in social currency. For instance, people from Silicon Valley say one way to improve voter turnout is to give people points for checking in with their smartphones at the voting booths – it might even work, people will show up because you show them coupons, but it risks recasting politics in a way that would make any further appeals to ethical behaviour impossible, once you use the language of coupons you need to talk to people in that language in all walks of life, whether it be picking up litter or turning off the lights. Do you want people to turn off the lights because they will get a coupon or because they have some ethical, environmental concerns? You don’t hear people in Silicon Valley talk about the ethical and moral dimension. They are not concerned with anything like citizenship at all.

Are Google’s Eric Schmidt and Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg scary people to have in the world?

A lot of the services they build are useful services. I use Google products all the time. People who are building a service which I pay for with my privacy or money I’m quite okay with. But as time goes by they aspire to do many things that go beyond their business and their initial set of commercial concerns.

We don’t treat them with the level of criticism and scrutiny that they deserve, we assume they are in the business of information which is a benign business and they are part of the enlightenment project. We tend not to think they have shareholders, commercial agendas and are run by people who might not have a very deep appreciation of the human condition and the world around us.

I have a lot of respect for these people as engineers but they are being asked to take on tasks that go far beyond engineering. Tasks that have to do with human and social engineering rather than technical engineering. Those are the kind of tasks I would prefer were taken on by human beings who are more well-rounded, who know about philosophy and ethics, and know something about things other than efficiency, because it will not end well.

We did not elect them to help us solve our problems. Once Google is selected to run the infrastructure on which we are changing the world, Google will be there for ever. Democratic accountability will not be prevalent. You cannot file a public information request about Google. We are abandoning all the checks and balances we have built to keep our public officials in check for these cleaner, neater, more efficient technological solutions. Imperfection might be the price for democracy.

Nevertheless it sounds like we should all be buying shares in Google and other Silicon Valley companies.

Not if my book succeeds.

You are a feared reviewer of other technology pundits’ books … you demolished Jeff Jarvis’s book Public Parts, called Walter Isaacson’s Steve Jobs biography “pedestrian”, you regularly ridicule internet consultant Clay Shirky via Twitter – do you enjoy a fight?

They don’t like to fight, that’s the problem. They are ripe for ridiculing because they are ridiculous in many cases, and the only reason they are advancing is because they plug in the conceptual and theoretical holes in their theories with buzzwords that have no meaning – “openness” or “the sharing economy” – what on earth is the sharing economy?

What I’ve tried to do in my reviews is engage seriously with these bullshit concepts, as if they were serious – to see whether an idea such as “cognitive surplus”, of which Clay Shirky is very fond, has any meaning at all. I do close readings of things that aren’t meant to be read very closely. That is how our technology discourse works, there are lots of great bloggers, soundbites and memes, but once you start putting them together you realise that they don’t add up. And making people aware that they don’t add up is a useful public function.

Does it bother you that Jeff Jarvis and Clay Shirky have many more Twitter followers than you?

Many of the internet pundits have more followers because Twitter plugged them on the suggested users list. They also happen to agree with Twitter’s position and celebrate the very same things as Twitter celebrates. It shows how far from neutrality and objectivity all of those platforms are, they are sold to us as essentially ways in which anyone can become anything but they have all sorts of ways to manipulate who gets heard and seen. In my case, I’m not worried because my followers have been gained organically, not through making me the default person to follow. My influence is hard to understand if you just look at the follower count.

What does the future hold for newspapers?

It depends on what the newspapers hold for the future. A lot of newspapers have embraced the digital rhetoric too eagerly, and have not articulated their own value to the public. A lot of what we hear from internet pundits is that everyone should be building their own reading lists, everyone should be on the lookout for interesting stories themselves, I think that logic is very regressive, backward, anti-democratic and stupid.

I’m fine with a staff of 300 people reading 5,000 stories everyday and condensing them into 25 pages that I myself can read. That’s a wonderful model. The newspaper offers something very different from Google’s aggregators. It offers a value system, an idea of what matters in the world. Newspapers need to start articulating that value.

How do you manage your own net use?

I’ve become very strategic about my use of technology as life is short and I want to use it wisely. I have bought myself a type of laptop from which it was very easy to remove the Wi-Fi card – so when I go to a coffee shop or the library I have no way to get online. However, at home I have cable connection. So I bought a safe with a timed combination lock. It is basically the most useful artefact in my life. I lock my phone and my router cable in my safe so I’m completely free from any interruption and I can spend the entire day, weekend or week reading and writing.

Does the timer have a workaround?

To circumvent my safe I have to open a panel with a screwdriver, so I have to hide all my screwdrivers in the safe as well. So I would have to leave home to buy a screwdriver – the time and cost of doing this is what stops me. It’s not that I can’t say “no” to myself. I just waste too much energy having the internal conversation. I’d rather delegate the control to my safe and use my remaining willpower to get something done. I find it a very effective system.

When you’re online do you watch TED talks?

There are many problems I have with TED. It has created this infrastructure where it very easy to be interesting without being very deep. If TED exercised their curatorial powers responsibly they would be able to separate the good interesting from the bad interesting, but my fear is they don’t care as long as it drives eyeballs to the website. They don’t align themselves with the thinkers, they align themselves with marketing, advertising, futurist crowd who are interested in ideas for the sake of ideas. They don’t care how these ideas relate to each other and they don’t much care for what those ideas actually mean. TED has come to exercise lots of power but they don’t exercise it wisely.

Can you code?

I think the craziest idea I have heard in the last few years is that everyone should learn to code. That is the most bizarre and regressive idea. There are good reasons why we don’t want everyone to learn nuclear physics, medicine or how financial markets work. Our entire modern project has been about delegating power over us to skilled people who want to do the work and be rewarded accordingly. I’m all for making us aware of how various technological infrastructures work. But the idea everyone should learn how to code is as plausible as saying that everyone should learn how to plumb. To me it just makes no sense.

So you don’t agree with the notion what we need to program or risk being programmed?

It’s just an immense shrinking of intellectual imagination to use computing metaphors. I’m just appalled. The idea that we need to take everything in our own hands as citizens, make our institutions hackable – this is just ridiculous. You don’t need to do it by yourself you delegate it to someone who will argue in parliament on your behalf – that’s what we’ve struggled so hard to accomplish. Now we want to completely undo that system because “hey, we have the tools, we have the technology to allow people to connect to each other”. That philosophy doesn’t make sense, there is no way you can learn how to program and be responsible for everything in your life and still have a fulfilling life.

Steam Engine at Georgetown, Colorado

This is a picture of No.9, a steam locomotive still working on the Georgetown Loop Railway.  In earlier days it took miners to the silver mine and brought them and whatever silver they found back to Georgetown.

No9

More Saber Rattling from the Dismal Kingdom

 

North Korea’s Military Can’t Hit U.S., Despite Threats

Reuters  |  Posted: 03/08/2013 4:10 am EST  |  Updated: 03/08/2013 9:38 am EST


By Jack Kim

SEOUL, March 8 (Reuters) – North Korea has plenty of military firepower even if its threat this week of a pre-emptive nuclear strike on the United States is a hollow one, with South Korea most at risk from the isolated regime’s artillery and rockets.

Japan, separated by less than 1,000 km (625 miles) of water and a frequent target of North Korea’s ire, is also in easy range of Pyongyang’s short- and mid-range missiles.

In pure numbers, North Korea’s military looks formidable, much larger than the more affluent South in both personnel and equipment. The North’s 1.2 million soldiers face off against 640,000 South Korean troops who are backed up by 26,000 U.S. personnel stationed in the country.

However, Pyongyang’s capabilities are not what the figures would suggest. Impoverished North Korea has all but abandoned running a conventional military that can engage in sustained battle because of scare resources and has instead focused on nuclear weapons and ballistic missile technology, experts said.

“A conventional military is very costly, and overwhelmingly so for North Korea. It quickly becomes a money fight and North Korea cannot win that,” said Shin In-kyun, head of the Korea Defence Network, an alliance of defence experts based in Seoul.

Nevertheless, a defence policy statement from South Korea in December noted that North Korea’s frontline artillery pieces could launch a “sudden and massive” barrage on the capital Seoul, a mere 50 km (31 miles) from the Demilitarised Zone border that separates the two Koreas.

North Korea has around 12,000 artillery guns, many arrayed near the border. It also has an arsenal of intermediate range missiles in operational deployment, some of which can travel more than 3,000 km (1,875 miles). That puts South Korea and Japan in range as well as the U.S. territory of Guam.

“They have the capability to strike anywhere in the South and Japan,” said Shin.

North Korea has also shown it has submarine capabilities.

In 2010, a North Korean submarine was widely believed to have sunk a South Korean naval vessel, killing 46 sailors. Pyongyang has denied it was behind the attack. In the same year, North Korea shelled a South Korean island in a disputed area, killing civilians.

One military expert said the North might be careful before launching another blatant attack, given Seoul has vowed to respond vigorously next time.

MAXIMUM CONFUSION

“The greatest realistic threat from North Korea is a type of attack that will create maximum confusion in the South but one that will be confusing as to who instigated it so that it will not invite immediate retaliation on Pyongyang,” said Song Young-keun, a retired Army general who was once head of the intelligence arm of the South’s military, the Defense Security Command.

Cyber warfare or a possible attack on the intricate communication and utility networks in the South could have just as much impact as any outright military action, Song said.

Outside its artillery and missiles, North Korea struggles to match the South.

Many of the soldiers that make North Korea the world’s most heavily militarised state are poorly trained or even properly fed and are deployed in hard labour or farming to supplement the meagre resources of their units.

The North’s air force has more than 820 fighter jets, according to South Korea’s Defence Ministry, but it does not have enough fuel to fly sorties or conduct needed drills to maintain combat effectiveness. South Korea has 460 jets.

North Korea has 4,200 tanks, according to South Korea, although Seoul’s 2,400 are more modern and better maintained.

The question of North Korea’s atomic capability was thrust to the headlines when Pyongyang on Thursday threatened the United States with a nuclear strike.

That came in the wake of accusations from Pyongyang that Washington was using military drills in South Korea as a launch pad for a nuclear war.

Experts say North Korea is years away from being able to hit continental America with a nuclear weapon despite a decades-long push toward an atomic capability.

The core of the North’s unconventional military focus is a stockpile of fissile material that could be enough for six to eight nuclear weapons, and up to 5,000 tonnes of biological and chemical weapons that can wipe out a mid-size industrial city.

North Korea claims to have developed a miniaturised nuclear weapon while the launch of a long-range rocket in December that for the first time put an object into orbit indicated progress in its attempt to build an intercontinental nuclear missile.

“But for a weapons system to be viable, it has to be in production and deployed. I don’t think we can say that about the Unha-3,” Shin said, referring to the rocket launched on Dec. 12.

Song said the general consensus was the North had yet to shrink a nuclear warhead to put on an intercontinental ballistic missile and more crucially there had been no tests to prove it has mastered the re-entry technology needed to bring a payload back into the atmosphere.

“It’s hogwash, blackmail,” Song said of Thursday’s threat against the United States. (Editing by Dean Yates)

China a Net Importer of Clean Energy Gear from the United States

Renewable energy
Cleaning up
Mar 6th 2013, 18:13 by V.V.V. | SHANGHAI

A striking new report finds that China is a net importer of clean technology from America

A CASUAL glance at the business headlines might suggest that China’s renewable-energy industry is an unstoppable juggernaut. Over the past decade, Chinese firms have used supportive government policies and lavish subsidies to leapfrog to the top of the world’s wind and solar industries. This has prompted political backlashes overseas—especially in America, where Chinese exporters have faced anti-dumping duties and worse.

So China must hold a massively large trade surplus in clean energy with America, right? Quite the opposite, finds a striking report titled “Advantage America” released on March 6th. The two countries traded about $6.5 billion in solar, wind and smart-grid technology and services in 2011—and America sold $1.63 billion more of such kit to China than it imported from there. The analysis was done by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), an industry publisher, and funded the Pew Charitable Trusts, a charity.

More surprising is the fact that America’s lead was maintained in all three categories studied by the boffins: solar, wind and smart energy technologies (see chart). One important explanation for this is that while China has strengths in large-scale assembly and mass manufacturing, it lacks the innovation to come up with high-value inputs. So American ingenuity is required to supply Chinese factories with such things as polysilicon and wafers for photovoltaic cells, and the fibreglass and control systems used in wind turbines.

The resulting picture is one that is reflective of the broader US-China relationship beyond trade. The two countries, though often appearing at loggerheads, are actually best seen in symbiosis. As Michael Liebreich of BNEF puts it in the report’s foreword, “the United States and China…are not so much competing as they are interdependent.”

When a Criminal Leads a Country

THE NEW YORKER ONLINE ONLY

MARCH 7, 2013
WHEN A CRIMINAL LEADS A COUNTRY
POSTED BY STEVE COLL

The modern effort to build a global system of international justice based on universal human rights is usually dated to the Nuremberg trials, after the Second World War, and the ratification of the Geneva Conventions. In the decades since then, the United Nations has created an ad-hoc war-crimes court to address atrocities in the former Yugoslavia; a second ad-hoc court to address the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide; a tribunal for Sierra Leone to address war crimes such as arm amputations, sexual enslavement, and child conscription; and, most recently, the International Criminal Court, which has been joined by a majority of the world’s nations, but not by the United States or China.

Optimists see in this history an inexorable if jagged path toward transnational justice with teeth. Pessimists see a noble project derailed in part by the arrogance of Western powers—led by the United States—who use war-crimes prosecutions to selectively punish weak African thugs, while avoiding offense to authoritarian allies and evading accountability for their own transgressions. Ultimately, the pessimists fear, the hypocrisy and inconsistency in the system will destroy its credibility and tarnish the ideals it is intended to promote.

These last few weeks have been a time for the pessimists.

In Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, who has been indicted for crimes against humanity, is ahead in initial Presidential voting. I.C.C. prosecutors have accused Kenyatta and his running mate of organizing militias that killed more than a thousand people after the last Presidential election, in 2007. Kenyatta has coöperated with the international court so far, and has asserted his innocence; his trial is scheduled to begin next month. It is possible that this week’s voting will be force him into a runoff, but, even so, Kenyatta might well become the first democratically elected alleged criminal on that scale in history.

The Obama Administration has warned of unspecified “consequences” if Kenyatta takes office, but Kenya is a frontline country in the effort to contain Islamist militias in Somalia; it also serves as a regional diplomatic center and has an important economy. It is hard to imagine that Obama or the European Union would risk destabilizing the country, even if they have to find a way to accommodate a government led by an international fugitive.

During his Presidential campaign, Kenyatta actually cited his indictment as a way to whip up support—presenting it as evidence of enduring Western colonialism. That is also the messaging strategy of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who defiantly travels in Africa and some parts of the Arab world despite being the subject of an I.C.C. arrest warrant. The warrant was issued because of Bashir’s crimes against humanity in the Darfur conflict, which remain unpunished.

And then there is the steadily accumulating horror of civilian suffering in Syria. Every American policymaker struggling with the problem of whether and how to intervene in the Syrian civil war might be advised, as a habit of conscience, to visit regularly the Web site of the Violations Documentation Centre in Syria, just to peruse the statistics and names of the dead that are posted by activists working inside the country.

As of Wednesday, the Centre reported a count of fifty-one thousand five hundred and fifteen “martyrs” to the uprising against Bashar al-Assad. If you click on the “martyrs” button on the Web site’s home page, you can filter a search for individual victims by checking various boxes under “cause of death.” The choices include “field execution,” “kidnapping-execution,” “kidnapping-torture,” “kidnapping-torture-execution,” “un-allowed to seek medical help,” and “warplane shelling.” Many of the incidents are difficult or impossible for outsiders to confirm, but there is clearly state-directed murder underway on a great scale.

During the week of February 17th, Assad-regime soldiers allegedly fired “at least four” ballistic missiles at civilian areas of Aleppo, and killed a hundred and forty-one people. Seventy-one of the victims were children. A Human Rights Watch investigator reached the site and remarked, “I have visited many attack sites in Syria, but I have never seen such destruction. Just when you think it can’t get any worse, the Syrian government finds ways to escalate its killing tactics.”

This week, I spoke with Mohammad Al-Abdallah, the executive director of the Syria Justice and Accountability Center, which was set up in 2012 to help collate and organize evidence about war crimes in Syria, to prepare for the possibility of justice after the Assad regime falls. Al-Abdallah said that Assad’s unrelenting brutality can be explained in part by the fact that, during the nineteen-eighties, his father’s regime discovered that it could “kill who you want, stabilize things,” and that afterward, because of Syria’s strategic importance as a neighbor of Israel and a fulcrum of ethnic and sectarian communities in the Middle East, the regime could count on pragmatic world powers to “get things back on track.”

Surely the present Assad regime reads the splits about Syria policy on the U.N. Security Council, and the hesitancy of the Obama Administration to involve itself deeply in the war by supplying weapons to the opposition, in a similar way. “He’s not going to give up,” Al-Abdallah said of Assad. “He’s not going to leave the country. He’s going to stay until he dies or somebody forces him to leave power.”

As the war grinds on, Al-Abdallah continued, and as Syrian civilians aligned with the opposition conclude that Western powers are not going to act decisively on their behalf, they have started to lose faith in the very idea of humanitarian law.

After an initial period when the opposition energetically collected names, videos, and photographs, now, he said, “one of the difficulties is to convince people of the value of documentation” of evidence that might be used later by the International Criminal Court or a similar postwar Syrian institution.

“They are becoming reluctant to talk about their crimes—torture or losing a child. More people are frustrated. They don’t hide their frustration toward the international community: ‘You don’t care about justice, so we are going to take it ourselves.’ ”

He added, “We have to send a message to the people: your loss is not going to be for nothing.” This is no time to yield the arguments about international justice to the pessimists. Syria proves that stability built on cynicism and expediency is not stability at all.

Ice Sculptures in Progress

Scene at Evergreen Lake showing part of ice sculpting process.

Icesculptures

Favorable Effect of Climate Change

Climate change might open up Northwest Passage to shipping by the middle of the century.

By Ashutosh Jogalekar | March 6, 2013 |

Investigating what is sometimes seen as one of the more favorable effects of climate change, a pair of scientists from UCLA has done a careful analysis of the melting of Arctic sea ice and concluded that it could lead to ships traversing the ice-free Northwest Passage (NWP) by 2050. It would also lead to much shorter transit times through the existing North Sea Passage (NSR). These developments may greatly reduce the time and cost of shipping but would also lead to unforeseen economic and geopolitical complications. The study looked at estimates of sea ice melting – gathered from both models and observations including satellite measurements – and then used seven different climate models to calculate the decrease in sea ice and its impact on shipping over the next few decades. The models are General Circulation Models (GCMs) that have been routinely used by the IPCC to estimate diverse impacts of climate change, including changing ice and sea levels.

From the IPCC predictions the authors used two different climate forcings – measures of global temperature changes induced by human and natural activities – to calculate the distribution, thickness and changes in sea ice in the Northwest and North Sea passages. The goal of the study was to broadly estimate how the opening up of the Northwest Passage would affect the transit of two major classes of shipping vessels in the peak month of September, when sea ice levels are at their lowest. The relevant ships are the so-called PC6 and open water (OW) vessels which are designed to navigate ares with low to moderate ice density. The report asks only for the optimal route for these vessels in terms of transit time since other factors like economics and legal issues are difficult to take into account.

 

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The researchers started by testing their models by hind-casting the distribution of ice for the period 1979 – 2005. Once the models were reliably benchmarked for this data set, they were then asked to predict the accessibility of the NWP and the NSR during the next few decades. The results pointed to a significant opening up of transit routes to both PC6 and OW vessels. For the NSR, sea-ice restricted the probability of shipping during the 1979-2005 period to just 40%. This probability rises to more than 95% for the period 2040-2060. The effects on the NWP are even more striking. The opening up of unprecedented shipping routes by 2040 or so is plainly evident in the models. Figures C and D illustrated above display the significant differences for transit times for PC6 (red) and open water (blue) vessels over the next half-century. The line weights indicate number of successful transits.

As the authors put it: “The emergence of a robust PC6 corridor directly over the North Pole indicates that, in either scenario, sea ice will become sufficiently thin (e.g., <1.2-m thick at 100% ice concentration) and/or diffuse such that a critical technical threshold is surpassed, and the shortest great circle route thus becomes feasible, for ships with moderate ice-breaking capability…the Northwest Passage (NWP), arguably the most historically famed of potential shipping routes through the Arctic, has the lowest navigation potential both historically and at present but opens substantially by 2040–2059.” The models find that for voyages from Eastern North America, the NWP might be the favored route for shipping by mid-century, essentially allowing transport 100% of the time during the peak season. The report concludes that “Put simply, by midcentury, September sea ice conditions have changed sufficiently in the NWP such that trans-Arctic shipping to/from North America can commonly capitalize on the ∼30% geographic distance savings that this route offers over the NSR.” These significant savings would undoubtedly provide a great incentive for several countries to take advantage of the newly opened shipping corridor. The authors conclude by reasonably speculating that international trade and economic agreements will have to be significantly revised to take this new situation into account. In addition the opening up of what has historically been a most attractive shipping route would lead to the unforeseen geopolitical consequences which inevitably arise from such large-scale planetary changes.

About the Author: Ashutosh (Ash) Jogalekar is a chemist interested in the history and philosophy of science. He considers science to be a seamless and all-encompassing part of the human experience. Follow on Twitter @curiouswavefn.