Eonomic Forecast

Paul Krugman: China’s Economic Growth May Kill Us All

By Joao Peixe | Tue, 18 December 2012 22:44 | 0

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Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winning economist and New York Times columnist, believes that China is a great example of human success. The speed and power of its economic growth, and its contribution to the development of new technologies are shining examples of what humanity is capable of; however, at the same time, China’s success could kill the planet.

“If you worry about climate change and stuff like that, then China is — Chinese growth is a wonderful human success story that could kill us all,” he stated at a recent New York Times DealBook conference.

Chinese growth is a huge boost to the whole global economy, yet the manner in which that growth is fuelled is proving deadly to the climate. Krugman noted that, “to some extent actually, we are hurt by Chinese growth. … There are scarce natural resources, and we are in fact competing for limited supplies of oil, minerals, etc.”

China, the largest polluter in the world, cares little for its impact on the environment as it looks to accelerate its development into a first world super power. As proven by a recent story that one of China’s biggest construction companies, Pacific Construction Group, plans to spend $3.52 billion to flatten 700 mountains over an area of 500 square miles in order to expand the city of Lanzhou.

Yet even so, it may surprise you to know that China actually has a smaller average carbon footprint per person than the US, and most of its greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to production processes for its export industries, and can therefore be partly blamed on other first world countries.

Krugman suggests that the only solution is for the US to treat China with more respect and give them more of a say in trade policies. “You can’t deny them a position that corresponds with their size.”

By. Joao Peixe of Oilprice.com

Street Rods in Downtown Austin

Every once in a while car enthusiasts will show up for street shows.  Some are scheduled, other impromptu gatherings.  I like this greenish hot rod.

streetrod2

Iran Closing the Straits of Hormuz?

Iran Announces More Naval Exercises in the Straits of Hormuz

By James Burgess | Mon, 17 December 2012 22:57 | 0

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Earlier in the year the Commander of the Iranian Army’s Ground Forces, Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan, stated that they would carry out eight military drills throughout the course of the current Iranian calendar year; which runs from March 21st to March 20th.

Now, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy Commander, Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, has announced what could be the last set of military operations of the year to occur sometime between now and the 20th of March.

Fadavi told the Iranian student news agency ISNA, that “by the end of the (Iranian) year we will hold an exercise in the Strait of Hormuz and will announce the exact time soon.”

Related Article: How Bad do Sanctions Really Hurt Iran?

Iran has always threatened to block the Straits if it came under any form of military attack due to its controversial nuclear programme. However at the same time other officials have been reported as stating that the Strait will never be closed. Perhaps the threat was merely intended to cause fear and uncertainty in the oil market, sufficient enough to drive up the price of oil during the beginning of the year, and reduce the impact of western sanctions on revenue from Iranian crude exports.

There is a strong western military presence in the Gulf determined to keep the Straits open, and prevent Iran from making any move to restrict traffic. However, Iran has got it into its head that it is their military presence in the region which ensures that the Straits remain open and safe to travel, even when there is no one other than themselves threatening to close the waterway.

Fadavi said that, “we guarantee the oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz on the condition that no military threat is issued against our country because Asia’s southeastern countries direly need the region’s oil.”

So far Israel has threatened to carry out military action against Iran, and the United States has not denied the possibility.

By. James Burgess of Oilprice.com

Financing the Murder of Children and Teachers

The money behind the Newtown massacre
By Dan Primack     December 17, 2012: 2:32 PM ET

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One way to reduce mass shootings is for big institutions to stop funding the assault weapon manufacturers.
FORTUNE — Do you know who owns more than a 6% stake in the maker of .223 Bushmaster rifles, like the one used last Friday to murder 20 first graders and seven adults in Newtown, Connecticut? California public schoolteachers.
The company in question is Freedom Group, a privately-held firearms conglomerate formed by private equity and hedge fund group Cerberus Capital Management. Cerberus created the platform in April 2006 via the acquisition of Bushmaster, after which it added another 10 makers of firearms, ammunition and accessories (including Remington, Marlin Arms and Barnes Bullets).
The California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) committed to invest a whopping $500 million into a $7.5 billion Cerberus fund that has helped bankroll Freedom Group. That means that it effectively could own a 6.67% stake in the gun maker, which filed to go public in late 2009 before pulling the offering in early 2011. In fact, the figure could be even higher since CalSTRS also committed $100 million to a $1 billion predecessor fund, which likely made the original investment.
What I honestly don’t understand, however, is why. Check out the following part of the pension system’s statement on investment responsibility:
Non-economic factors will supplement profit factors in making investment decisions. Non-economic factors are defined as those considerations not directly related to the maximization of income and the preservation of principal. The consideration of non-economic factors is for the purpose of ensuring that the Retirement System, either through its action or inaction, does not promote, condone or facilitate social injury.
Does Freedom Group not facilitate social injury? I’m not suggesting that social injury is its mission, but it certainly is a foreseeable consequence.
Moreover, CalSTRS has identified 21 risk factors “that should be included within the financial analysis of any investment decision.” Here is the one titled Human Health:
The risk to an investment’s long-term profitability from business exposure to an industry or company that makes a product which is highly detrimental to human health so that it draws significant product liability lawsuits, government regulation, United Nations sanctions and focus, and avoidance by other institutional investors.
Pretty sure the manufacture of semi-automatic rifles would apply here as well.
To be sure, there is a difference between buying a listed company’s stock and investing in a private equity fund that promises to build out a diversified portfolio. Direct versus indirect. But it also is true that certain institutional investors either, (a) Only invest in private equity funds that pledge not to make certain types of investments (e.g., firearms, tobacco, etc.), or (b) Insist that its money be carved out of any such offending investment, so that the institution does not become an indirect shareholder.
MORE: Private equity’s European land grab
Unfortunately, CalSTRS has not taken either tack.
“Clearly you can make a case that this company’s products fall within the 21 risk factors, particularly the one regarding human health,” says CalSTRS spokesman Ricardo Duran. “But there are a lot of products that can be used responsibly or irresponsibly, and in this case it was used irresponsibly… Now that a tragic event like this has occurred, I’m sure that it is something that we will be discussing going forward.”
When I followed up by asking if CalSTRS had such a discussion after a Bushmaster rifle was used in the Aurora movie theater shooting, Duran said he did not know. Also worth noting that Cerberus itself is not returning requests for comment.
There has been a lot of talk in the past several days about how to prevent the next massacre, with suggestions ranging from strengthened gun control legislation to improved mental health infrastructure. And, for the record, I support both.
MORE: Post-financial crisis milestone: Banks beat market
But I also think that it’s time for our large nonprofit institutions to put some of their money where their mission is. Profit should be the primary goal of their investment offices, but not at the expense of their broader purposes. If a schoolteachers union or university endowment or nonprofit foundation truly cares about stopping the next mass killing, then they should not provide capital that produces the instruments of such destruction.
For many gun enthusiasts, semi-automatic rifles like the .223 Bushmaster is about sport and individual liberty. For Freedom Group, they are about profit. If the company were unable to find private investors unless it changed internal policy — perhaps by only supplying such weaponry to police departments and military — then Freedom most likely would do so. Capital is, of course, the root of capitalism.
Cerberus did not return repeated requests for comment. Also not commenting was private equity firm Bruckmann, Rosser, Sherrill & Co., which sold Remington to Cerberus and still owns firearms peripherals company Magpul Industries.
UPDATE: Cerberus announced at 1am on Wednesday that it plans to “immediately engage in a formal process to sell… Freedom Group.”
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Posted in: CalSTRS, Cerberus Capital, Freedom Group, Guns, Private Equity

On Top of the World in 90 Days

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On top of the world in 90 days
Dec 17th 2012, 14:54 by Economist.com

Building the world’s tallest skyscrapers

SKYSCRAPERS typically take a long time to build. The top 20 tallest (currently completed) towers in the world took, on average, 5.3 years to construct. But a company in China called Broad Sustainable Building, with a track record of putting up buildings in a jiffy, is now planning to construct the world’s tallest building—838 metres—in just 90 days. It will be called Sky City One and is to be built in Changsha, capital of Hunan province. This speed is made possible by a novel technique: most of the components are prefabricated on the ground, so the construction process is more like stacking Lego blocks together than building everything on site. The result, if the schedule is adhered to, will be that the building grows by an average of nine metres per day. That is ten times the rate of the next-fastest skyscraper in our chart, the Empire State Building, which was completed in 1931. Quite a tall order, in short.

Austin Skyline

I saw and photographed this oil painting which hangs in an office building in downtown Austin.  I did not see any information regarding the artist.  I really enjoy the highly saturated colors.

State Capitol2

Buenos Aires Cafe

This an outstanding restaurant on East 6th Street, Austin, Texas.  Serving outstanding Argentine dishes, it is only open for dinner.  If you have not been East of I35 in downtown Austin, you need to get there.  There is a lot going on.

Buenosariescafe

Classic Ride

1930s Automobile at South Austin

Classic Ride

Mule Deer Near our Home in Evergreen, CO

Picture of two mule deer up the hill from our home in Evergreen, CO.

muledeer

A Unique Venue

TWELVE GIGS ON A BOAT

Gigs boat.jpg

 

For the past year, a boat in the sky has been London’s quirkiest rock venue. The curator was Laura Barton, music writer and IL contributor…

From INTELLIGENT LIFE magazine, January/February 2013

THERE WAS A problem with the spinny horn. Was the boat big enough to accommodate a shellacked double-horn speaker, standing 28 inches tall and with a 40-inch wingspan? And who would pay for its safe passage from Chicago to London?

It was two weeks before the start of Sounds from a Room. The multi-instrumentalist Andrew Bird was due to perform the inaugural concert, and suddenly everything was in jeopardy; the elaborate speaker was looking like a deal-breaker. I googled a picture of the spinny horn, pressed my face into my hands, and wondered whether this sense of imminent catastrophe would continue all year.

It had all started with a glass of wine. One warm evening in 2011, Michael Morris, co-director of the innovative arts organisation Artangel, invited me for a drink. We sat outside and sipped rosé while he explained a grand project for the coming year: as part of London’s Cultural Olympiad, Artangel would be placing a boat on top of the Queen Elizabeth Hall. Chiefly it would exist as a one-room hotel, with splendid views over the river—from the Houses of Parliament to St Paul’s. But for ten days each month the boat would host cultural events: a writer in residence, a thinker in residence, and a series of concerts to be live-streamed online, as well as shown on a giant screen in the Southbank Centre. Would I, he gently wondered, consider helping them devise the musical programme?

AND SO, OVER the months, we drew up a list of artists who might want to perform on board the boat—people we loved or admired, people we hoped would give a portrait of the breadth and beauty of music, from classical cellists to popular musicians in Mali, Senegal and Sweden. We wanted to explore the potential of a single room, the echo of wood and glass, the acoustics of its library, observation deck, galley, the influence of tide and wind and sky. The charge of isolation.

Meanwhile, in a shed in Sussex, the boat was being built. Commissioned by Living Architecture, and designed by David Kohn Architects in collaboration with the artist Fiona Banner, it was inspired by the Roi des Belges—the steamer that Joseph Conrad sailed down the Congo in 1889, on the journey that led him to write “Heart of Darkness”. Our boat was not intended to float; its structure of steel, aluminium sheet and painted ply would arrive by road, and be winched high up onto the QEH roof one December morning. But until then it remained something of a mystery, a vague sketch of spire and hull and bitter red wood.

“It’s a boat,” I would say down the line to band managers and booking agents.

“A boat on the river?” they would reply, and I would say no, it was a boat that would sit proudly on a roof, unfettered by fish and flotsam and undulating tides. “And where do the audience stand?”

“There is no audience.” And there would be a silence, as they tried to imagine a show in a tiny boat atop a large building with no audience.

It is hard to convince anyone of the merits of a project when the venue doesn’t exist and you are armed only with the architects’ plans, giving a misty, pastel-hued impression of what it might look like. You see how people crave solidity—photos, specifications, dimensions, technical necessities, rather than the swan-whoop of enthusiasm. So, in those early months, discussions often stalled. Booking agents stopped answering e-mails; managers fell into long contemplation, or suggested we revisit the idea once the concerts were under way. At times I feared that we might struggle to fill the year-long, 12-concert programme.

But some got it instantly. Artists who had a long-standing relationship with Artangel, such as Laurie Anderson, Wildbirds & Peacedrums and Imogen Heap, all felt at ease with the leap of imagination required, even exhilarated. Others seemed willing to be convinced, and so we told them of the promise of the boat—a chance to enjoy some isolation, two nights far away from tour buses and thronging fans. A chance to write something new, or reinterpret old songs. We told them to think of it like the mountain fire station that inspired Kerouac’s “Desolation Angels”, or the Wisconsin cabin that brought forth Bon Iver’s “For Emma, Forever Ago”—only in the middle of a big city, and with a view of the barges and the promenaders and the buses rolling over Waterloo Bridge.

Andrew Bird arrived that January day, spinny horn in tow, but in muted spirits. The air was chill and damp and the colour of porridge, and he was disappointed his wife was unable to join him, having discovered en route to the airport that her passport had expired. He sat bundled in scarves and woollens, skin ashen save for the tip of his nose which was pink with cold.

The day of his performance, the sky hung pale and flat through the porthole window. I sat before the big screen in the belly of the Royal Festival Hall and fretted. Would the weather make for a flat performance? Would the spinny horn turn? Would all the cables and wires and switches and magic needed to let a single person see the show actually work?

Bird strolled onto the screen still swaddled in scarves. He carried his violin, and before him stood microphones, glockenspiel, pedals for looping. I remember the pure burst of joy I felt as his fingers first plucked those violin strings; the sharp, clear sound of them bright against the grey of the city. It had worked. It was working. Music spilled out across the foyer, and people stopped and sat and gawped.

Things did go wrong, of course. A technical glitch cut out Wildbirds & Peacedrums’ performance, and people had a tendency to over-dream and to run out of time: Laurie Anderson had to curtail her sound-piece cum radio broadcast; at points during his stay Heiner Goebbels’s “Up-river Book”—a sound-sketch involving the Senegalese griots Sira and Boubakar Djebaté on voice and kora, the French musician Xavier Garcia on electronics and the actor André Wilms adding narration—threatened to tangle itself in its own ambition.

In June, Imogen Heap brought a “listening chair” into the Festival Hall in an attempt to crowd-source material that she would turn into an entirely new song during her stay. It was a big undertaking, drawing on their testimonies while writing from the perspective of the Thames itself. She named the song “You Know Where to Find Me”, and composed it in the middle of a storm, on two hours’ sleep. Her performance recreated its composition—from crowd-sourcing to melody-making, via its mood and themes, and presented the half-finished song. “This is as much about the process as the actual finished article,” she explained, and although the song was incomplete, it offered a sharp insight into the process of songwriting. Heap finished it later and posted it on the project’s website.

Picture: The boat, inspired by “Heart of Darkness” (Peter Kindersley)

 

WHEN WE STARTED, I remember thinking how easily it might stray into a festival of introspection, a glorified singer-songwriter bedroom, beset by melancholy and gloom. So, in July, we invited the American band tUnE-yArDs to play. The project of Merrill Garbus, tUnE-yArDs is a joyous cacophony of loops, electric bass, snare drum, ukulele, and her distinctive vocal style, the product of studying Swahili at university and a trip to the coast of Kenya where she learned music and dance. I had seen them live on several occasions and was thrilled by their infectiousness, the way their music seemed to work on the guts, skin and muscles as much as the ears. I had no doubt that they would make something special of their time in the boat.

In the event, it was extraordinary. Garbus insisted that instead of exploring the boat’s remoteness, she wanted the space thronged with people. She wanted noise and life and voices. Dressed in elaborate costume and face paint, she launched in with a kind of exquisite caterwaul, soon joined by her bandmate Nate Brenner and two female gospel singers, who had spent the previous hour squashed into the boat’s shower room, using it as an impromptu rehearsal space. The boat seemed suddenly delighted, jostlingly vibrant, transformed from the serene space of Bird’s performance.

We began to make plans for the second half of the year. The artists who had performed up to now had given us something ambitious, unusual, exciting: Imogen Heap’s listening chair, Laurie Anderson’s spoken-word performance, Heiner Goebbels’s musical rendering of Conrad’s river diaries, Wildbirds & Peacedrums playing the boat itself like a percussive instrument. Now we had to get our heads around some of the more outlandish plans of the artists to come: the cellist Natalie Clein’s desire to establish “a dialogue between solitude and its opposite and music that feels as though it ebbs and flows with the river”, and Charlie Fink of Noah and the Whale, who began with the intention of melding a brass band with Oliver Stone’s talk-radio show.

IN SEPTEMBER, WE had invited Jarvis Cocker to host his BBC 6 Music show from the boat. It was a long-running plan, tentatively agreed the previous autumn, but as the date drew near none of us seemed any clearer about what Cocker might actually do in the boat, or how we might overcome the obstacles of broadcasting, recording, performing so far from the studio. The summer trickled by; Cocker remained worryingly uncontactable, his producer noncommittal, and Artangel became fretful. I assured everyone that all would be well. I tried to sound calm, but in my belly I feared that in September we would be left with an empty room, and a fevered scrabble to fill it.

In the end, Jarvis’s shift in the boat was one of the best. He appeared as if by magic the week before his scheduled stay, armed with an array of ideas for a river-themed radio show—interviewing archaeologists who harvest the riverbanks, and a gentleman from the Port of London Authority who stood on the prow of the boat to talk about the tides and the moon. Jarvis brought a gentleness and a warmth to the room.

My own relationship with music shifted over the year. Seeing the space that a performance must fill, and watching—at such an intimate distance—the way each artist proceeded to fill it, was either thrilling, terrifying, or both. Each month, as we stood on the brink of a new performance, I would feel a sudden lurch, as if stepping off into that wide, blank space with them.

Many of the artists saw the boat as an opportunity to try something new. We began and ended the year with Andrew Bird and Stornoway performing unreleased material, but in between we had some curiosities that displayed the lick of genius. Among them was October’s performance by the Texan musician Josh T. Pearson. We had expected something similar to his usual shows, performed alone with a guitar and the clutch of songs he recorded for his latest solo album, “Last of the Country Gentlemen”. Instead he gave us a kind of gospel hour—excerpts of his favourite country gospel performances on YouTube and a variety of readings, smattered between gospel classics recorded on the boat in the small hours of the morning.

As I stepped aboard to this news, another pit of worry opened up inside me. What if it didn’t work? What if this rambling show never caught fire? I sat on the bed and watched as Pearson, a long, bearded straggle of a man in a Stetson, cowboy boots and a fancy belt buckle, drifted between two laptops, a guitar and a microphone, introducing each song with an anecdote or an apology, nubbed short by correction, or wild observation. And slowly the pit began to disappear.

There was something incredible about this performance—the hilarious peculiarity of this drawling, world-weary, long-limbed Texan scrunched into this tiny room, preaching the gospel. Behind him the sky was darkening. Buses ran silently across the bridge, and the lights freckled across the river. He played a piece called “I Surrender All”, a lilting sprawl of late-night sadness. And it struck me then what we had achieved with this little boat: all the rich and extraordinary music it had carried across these months, through rain and wind and grey skies, the leafing trees and the fading light, a river of deep and lustrous song.

Picture: Laura Barton joins the singer Josh T. Pearson on board (Artangel)