Nuclear Power for China

Despite Fukushima, China Embraces Nuclear Power

By John Daly | Sun, 28 October 2012 00:00 | 2
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The 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami double disaster that destroyed Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s six reactor complex at Fukushima Daiichi was a startling reminder to the global community of the inherent risks associated with nuclear power plants (NPPs).

Eighteen months later however, for a number of reasons, proponents of nuclear energy have not only survived what many at the time believed to be a knockout blow, but a number of countries have cautiously announced plans to build NPPs, all of which of course will incorporate the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi debacle.

Advocates of NPPs rightly point out that, in a world increasingly concerned about greenhouse gases and CO2 emissions, nuclear power plants are essentially emissions-free.
Opponents counter that the nuclear power industry’s dolorous safety record, beginning with Three Mile Island through Chernobyl to Fukushima Daiichi indicates the folly of believing that a NPP to withstand all risks, from human error to Mother Nature, 100 percent of the time.

And then there remains the as yet unresolved problem of what to do with NPP waste.

But China, which in the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe imposed a nationwide ban on the construction of new NPPs, has concluded that  the nation needs new nuclear power installations.

Why would Beijing take such a seemingly retrograde step, especially as nuclear power currently contributes only 1.8 percent of China’s electrical output? Coal still accounts for about 70 percent of China’s energy consumption and about 80 percent of its electricity production.

Simple – the mandarins in Beijing note that, unlike erratic renewable power sources such as wind and solar, NPPs generate reliable, 24/7 electrical power. China is now the world’s biggest energy consumer, and building new reactors is a key part of Beijing’s plans to curb demand for fossil fuels. Furthermore, the decision has a strategic element – China’s hydrocarbon imports come from volatile regions of the world such as Iran and Sudan, and Beijing has a further concern that in the event of rising international tensions, the U.S. could assert it naval power to interfere with maritime energy shipments.

On 24 October China’s State Council approved plans on nuclear power safety and development that said construction of nuclear power plants would resume “steadily” and subsequently released a white paper on national energy policy.

China currently has 15 operating nuclear reactors that provide roughly 12.5 gigawatts of generating capacity, and another 26 reactors currently under construction that will add another 30 gigawatts to the national grid.

The document blandly noted, “China will invest more in nuclear power technological innovations, promote application of advanced technology, improve the equipment level, and attach great importance to personnel training.”

But there is a downside to this roseate picture. In December 2009, nearly two years before Fukushima, the International Atomic Energy Agency expressed concerns that China’s breakneck development of nuclear power might lead to shortages of trained personnel, putting newer NPPs at increased risk from human error.

Even China’s National Nuclear Safety Administration director Li Ganjie, hardly an alarmist, noted at the time, “At the current stage, if we are not fully aware of the sector’s over-rapid expansions, it will threaten construction quality and operation safety of nuclear power plants.”

The good news?

According China government sources, only a “small” number of NPPs will be launched by 2015.

The bad news is that all of them will be located at coastal sites.

Typhoon, anyone?

But not to worry – according to the white paper, all the new NPPs must “comply with the highest international safety standards.” The State Council said that all new NPPs will be constructed according to “third-generation safety standards.”

What is signally missing from Beijing’s pronouncements is any input from either the Chinese populace or the country’s nascent environment movement. It remains to be seen how the government’s embrace of nuclear power in the world’s most populous nation will be seen by country’s highly regimented populace.

By. John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com

Billionaire’s Club

October 28, 2012, 7:28 PMComment
The Billionaires Club
By CHRISTINE HAUGHNEY

The cover of the December issue of Bloomberg Markets.
As the rich grow richer, so does the coverage of their fortunes.

Later this week, Bloomberg Markets, the 375,000-circulation magazine distributed mainly to Bloomberg terminal subscribers, is publishing a “World’s Richest People” December issue. The issue features 200 billionaires, including a few previously undiscovered billionaires and China’s richest man, Zong Qinghou.

The latest issue is part of Bloomberg’s broader plan to capture a reporting thread that Forbes has dominated for decades. Last year, Matthew G. Miller, former global wealth editor at Forbes Media, said that at Forbes he had been struggling to cover the wealthy with a rapidly diminishing pool of reporters. When he moved to Bloomberg last year, he suddenly had its 1,600 journalists spread across 72 countries to help him cover the world’s billionaires.

In March, Bloomberg started publishing on its terminal a ranking of the world’s billionaires that it updates daily based on how their fortunes are doing. Mr. Miller said that since he came on board last year, Bloomberg reporters have discovered more than 40 hidden billionaires. These billionaires include several women that the Forbes list had not uncovered like Elaine Marshall, a major shareholder of Koch Industries, and Dirce Camargo, Brazil’s richest woman, who is worth $13.4 billion.

“Our reporters are essentially billionaire-hunters,” said Mr. Miller. “Our reporters are constantly calling these billionaires. Some of them are on speed-dial.”

Bloomberg executives stressed how important this coverage is since these billionaires control so much of the world’s wealth. Ronald Henkoff, Bloomberg Markets’ editor, said the 200 billionaires on the Bloomberg list have a net worth of $2.7 trillion, which is about the gross domestic product of France. Matt Winkler, the editor in chief of Bloomberg News, said he planned to build on this coverage.

“Like everything that we’ve started at Bloomberg, once we’re committed to it, we see it as ever expanding,” Mr. Winkler said. “That certainly applies to this subject.”

Tracking Voters clicks Online

Tracking Voters’ Clicks Online to Try to Sway Them
By NATASHA SINGER and CHARLES DUHIGG
Published: October 27, 2012

A few weeks ago, Thomas Goddard, a community college student in Santa Clara, Calif., and a devoted supporter of President Obama, clicked on mittromney.com to check out the candidate’s position on abortion.

Jason Henry for The New York Times
Thomas Goddard, of Santa Clara, Calif., says online ads for Mitt Romney have continued to appear since he visited the candidate’s Web site.
Multimedia

Then, as he visited other Web sites, he started seeing advertisements asking him to donate to Mitt Romney’s campaign. One mentioned family values, he said, and seemed aimed at someone with more conservative leanings.

“It doesn’t make any sense,” Mr. Goddard said. “I’m the opposite of a Romney supporter. But ever since I went to the Romney site, they’ve been following me.”

One of the hallmarks of this campaign is the use of increasingly sophisticated — but not always accurate — data-mining techniques to customize ads for voters based on the digital trails they leave as they visit Internet sites.

It is a practice pioneered by online retailers who work with third-party information resellers to create detailed portraits of consumers, all the better to show them relevant marketing pitches. Mr. Goddard, for example, may have received those Romney ads because of “retargeting” software designed to show people ads for certain sites or products they have previously viewed.

Now, in the election’s final weeks, both presidential campaigns have drastically increased their use of such third-party surveillance engines, according to Evidon, a company that helps businesses and consumers monitor and control third-party tracking software.

Over the month of September, Evidon identified 76 different tracking programs on barackobama.com — two more trackers than it found on Best Buy’s Web site — compared with 53 in May. It found 40 different trackers on mittromney.com last month, compared with 25 in May.

The report provides a rare glimpse into the number of third-party tracking programs that are operating on the campaign Web sites — as many as or more than on some of the most popular retailers’ sites.

The campaigns directly hire some companies, like ad agencies or data management firms, that marry information collected about voters on a campaign site with data about them from other sources. But these entities, in turn, may bring their own software partners to the sites to perform data-mining activities like retargeting voters or tracking the political links they share with their social networks.

Now some consumer advocates say the proliferation of these trackers raises the risk that information about millions of people’s political beliefs could spread to dozens of business-to-business companies whose names many voters have never even heard. There is growing concern that the campaigns or third-party trackers may later use that voter data for purposes the public never imagined, like excluding someone from a job offer based on his or her past political affiliations.

“Is the data going to be sold to marketers or shared with other campaigns?” said Christopher Calabrese, the legislative counsel for privacy-related issues at the American Civil Liberties Union. “We simply don’t know how this information is going to be used in the future and where it is going to end up.”

Evidon offers a free software program called Ghostery that people can use to identify third-party trackers on the sites they visit. On Oct. 18 the program identified 19 different trackers on the Obama Web site and 12 on the Romney site. A reporter contacted 10 for comment.

Among those who responded, Cassie Piercey, a spokeswoman for ValueClick, whose MediaPlex marketing analytics division was identified as operating on the Obama site by Ghostery, said she could not comment on specific clients and referred a reporter to the company’s privacy policy. The policy says that ValueClick may collect information about users — like their Internet Protocol addresses, Web browsing histories, online purchases and searches — that does not involve identifiable information like their names, and that the company may share that data with its clients and marketing partners.

Adam Berke, the president of AdRoll, an advertising and retargeting company identified by Evidon on the Obama site, said the company did not aggregate user data or share it with other clients.

Meanwhile, Nanda Kishore, the chief technology officer of ShareThis, a service found on the Romney site by Ghostery that collects information about the links visitors share with their social networks, said the company collects only “anonymous” information about users and does not share or sell it.

The privacy policies on the campaigns’ Web sites acknowledge that they work with third parties that may collect user data.

Evidon executives said the tracking companies on the campaign sites included services that collect details about people’s online behavior in order to help mold ads to their political concerns; advertising networks that track people’s browsing history to measure the effectiveness of ads; and companies that record user behavior so they can analyze the effectiveness of sites to attract and hold on to Web traffic.

Officials with both campaigns emphasize that such data collection is “anonymous” because third-party companies use code numbers, not real names, to track site visitors.

Adam Fetcher, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, said the Web site does not allow its partners to share data collected from visitors with other clients or use it for other purposes like marketing consumer goods.

“We are committed to protecting individual privacy and employ strong safeguards to protect personal information,” Mr. Fetcher wrote in an e-mail. “We do not provide any personal information to outside entities, and we stipulate that third-party partners not use data collected on the site for other purposes.”

In response to a reporter’s query about whether the Romney site placed limitations on the collection or use of voter data by its partners, Ryan Williams, a campaign spokesman, wrote in an e-mail: “The Romney campaign respects the privacy rights of all Americans. We are committed to ensuring that all of our voter outreach is governed by the highest ethical standards.”

Evidon compiled the statistics on campaign tracking by aggregating data from a panel of about seven million volunteers who use its Ghostery program.

From May to September, Evidon identified 97 tracking programs — “far more than the average site employs,” a company report said — on the Obama and Romney sites combined. (Some trackers appeared on both sites.)

The campaigns’ increased use of tracking technology represents “a significant windfall for online data collectors and ad targeting companies,” Andy Kahl, the director of consumer products at Evidon, wrote in the report. But, he added, “the campaigns need to realize that being on top of which technology partners are appearing on their site, and ensuring clarity into what these partners can and can’t do with the data, is essential.”

Industry executives say the campaigns simply use data-mining to show the most relevant message to each voter.

“Political campaigns now for the first time can actually reach out to prospective voters with messaging that addresses each person’s specific interests and causes,” according to a recent report from the Interactive Advertising Bureau, a trade group.

But privacy advocates say such personalization raises questions about transparency.

“Individual voters may not be aware that the message they are getting is based on information that has been gleaned about their activities around the Web and is precisely targeted to them,” said Mr. Calabrese of the A.C.L.U. “It may be a private message just for me that is not the type of statement the campaign makes publicly.”

While some voters may be turned off by the customized campaign appeals, for others, they are expected.

“Companies are doing it, why shouldn’t campaigns?” said Michael James, a New Jersey high school teacher who visited both campaign sites this year to determine whom he would support. “The Internet has changed privacy. We can’t expect either campaign to pretend we’re living in the past.”

Solar Islands

Using Solar Islands to Power Crowded Cities

By Charles Kennedy | Thu, 25 October 2012 22:10 | 1

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DNV, a global consultancy firm has released its personal designs for floating solar farms which it believes could grow to rival offshore wind farms, and offer a genuine solution to power densely populated cities – which are based on the coast.

The intention is to use 560W thin film solar panels, which are lighter and more flexible than traditional glass panels. Huge hexagonal islands will then be constructed and linked together, providing support for 4,200 solar panels over an area the size of a sports stadium.

SUNdy Solar Array

SUNdy, the name given to the concept, could then see several of the floating hexagonal islands linked together to form a field of solar panels with a capacity of 50MW or more, capable of providing power to 30,000 people.

Related Article: Solar Roadways: Powering the World of Tomorrow

The hexagonal solar arrays will be split into large prefabricated parts, will should make mass production easy, and also the offshore assembly.

Bjørn Tore Markussen, the chief operational officer at DNV, believes that “the SUNdy floating solar field concept offers sound and sustainable development prospects, particularly in Asia and the congested coastal megacities where there’s limited opportunity for rooftop solar power and urban areas which command premium prices for large-scale mounted solar production.”

By. Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com

Corruption in China

 

 

Many relatives of Mr. Wen became wealthy during his leadership.

By DAVID BARBOZA

Published: October 25, 2012 197 Comments

BEIJING — The mother of China’s prime minister was a schoolteacher in northern China. His father was ordered to tend pigs in one of Mao’s political campaigns. And during childhood, “my family was extremely poor,” the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, said in a speech last year.

But now 90, the prime minister’s mother, Yang Zhiyun, not only left poverty behind — she became outright rich, at least on paper, according to corporate and regulatory records. Just one investment in her name, in a large Chinese financial services company, had a value of $120 million five years ago, the records show.

The details of how Ms. Yang, a widow, accumulated such wealth are not known, or even if she was aware of the holdings in her name. But it happened after her son was elevated to China’s ruling elite, first in 1998 as vice prime minister and then five years later as prime minister.

Many relatives of Wen Jiabao, including his son, daughter, younger brother and brother-in-law, have become extraordinarily wealthy during his leadership, an investigation by The New York Times shows. A review of corporate and regulatory records indicates that the prime minister’s relatives, some of whom have a knack for aggressive deal-making, including his wife, have controlled assets worth at least $2.7 billion.

In many cases, the names of the relatives have been hidden behind layers of partnerships and investment vehicles involving friends, work colleagues and business partners. Untangling their financial holdings provides an unusually detailed look at how politically connected people have profited from being at the intersection of government and business as state influence and private wealth converge in China’s fast-growing economy.

Unlike most new businesses in China, the family’s ventures sometimes received financial backing from state-owned companies, including China Mobile, one of the country’s biggest phone operators, the documents show. At other times, the ventures won support from some of Asia’s richest tycoons. The Times found that Mr. Wen’s relatives accumulated shares in banks, jewelers, tourist resorts, telecommunications companies and infrastructure projects, sometimes by using offshore entities.

The holdings include a villa development project in Beijing; a tire factory in northern China; a company that helped build some of Beijing’s Olympic stadiums, including the well-known “Bird’s Nest”; and Ping An Insurance, one of the world’s biggest financial services companies.

As prime minister in an economy that remains heavily state-driven, Mr. Wen, who is best known for his simple ways and common touch, more importantly has broad authority over the major industries where his relatives have made their fortunes. Chinese companies cannot list their shares on a stock exchange without approval from agencies overseen by Mr. Wen, for example. He also has the power to influence investments in strategic sectors like energy and telecommunications.

Because the Chinese government rarely makes its deliberations public, it is not known what role — if any — Mr. Wen, who is 70, has played in most policy or regulatory decisions. But in some cases, his relatives have sought to profit from opportunities made possible by those decisions.

The prime minister’s younger brother, for example, has a company that was awarded more than $30 million in government contracts and subsidies to handle wastewater treatment and medical waste disposal for some of China’s biggest cities, according to estimates based on government records. The contracts were announced after Mr. Wen ordered tougher regulations on medical waste disposal in 2003 after the SARS outbreak.

In 2004, after the State Council, a government body Mr. Wen presides over, exempted Ping An Insurance and other companies from rules that limited their scope, Ping An went on to raise $1.8 billion in an initial public offering of stock. Partnerships controlled by Mr. Wen’s relatives — along with their friends and colleagues — made a fortune by investing in the company before the public offering.

In 2007, the last year the stock holdings were disclosed in public documents, those partnerships held as much as $2.2 billion worth of Ping An stock, according to an accounting of the investments by The Times that was verified by outside auditors. Ping An’s overall market value is now nearly $60 billion.

Ping An said in a statement that the company did “not know the background of the entities behind our shareholders.” The statement said, “Ping An has no means to know the intentions behind shareholders when they buy and sell our shares.”

While Communist Party regulations call for top officials to disclose their wealth and that of their immediate family members, no law or regulation prohibits relatives of even the most senior officials from becoming deal-makers or major investors — a loophole that effectively allows them to trade on their family name. Some Chinese argue that permitting the families of Communist Party leaders to profit from the country’s long economic boom has been important to ensuring elite support for market-oriented reforms.

Even so, the business dealings of Mr. Wen’s relatives have sometimes been hidden in ways that suggest the relatives are eager to avoid public scrutiny, the records filed with Chinese regulatory authorities show. Their ownership stakes are often veiled by an intricate web of holdings as many as five steps removed from the operating companies, according to the review.

In the case of Mr. Wen’s mother, The Times calculated her stake in Ping An — valued at $120 million in 2007 — by examining public records and government-issued identity cards, and by following the ownership trail to three Chinese investment entities. The name recorded on his mother’s shares was Taihong, a holding company registered in Tianjin, the prime minister’s hometown.

The apparent efforts to conceal the wealth reflect the highly charged politics surrounding the country’s ruling elite, many of whom are also enormously wealthy but reluctant to draw attention to their riches. When Bloomberg News reported in June that the extended family of Vice President Xi Jinping, set to become China’s next president, had amassed hundreds of millions of dollars in assets, the Chinese government blocked access inside the country to the Bloomberg Web site.

“In the senior leadership, there’s no family that doesn’t have these problems,” said a former government colleague of Wen Jiabao who has known him for more than 20 years and who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “His enemies are intentionally trying to smear him by letting this leak out.”

The Times presented its findings to the Chinese government for comment. The Foreign Ministry declined to respond to questions about the investments, the prime minister or his relatives. Members of Mr. Wen’s family also declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment.

Duan Weihong, a wealthy businesswoman whose company, Taihong, was the investment vehicle for the Ping An shares held by the prime minister’s mother and other relatives, said the investments were actually her own. Ms. Duan, who comes from the prime minister’s hometown and is a close friend of his wife, said ownership of the shares was listed in the names of Mr. Wen’s relatives in an effort to conceal the size of Ms. Duan’s own holdings.

“When I invested in Ping An I didn’t want to be written about,” Ms. Duan said, “so I had my relatives find some other people to hold these shares for me.”

But it was an “accident,” she said, that her company chose the relatives of the prime minister as the listed shareholders — a process that required registering their official ID numbers and obtaining their signatures. Until presented with the names of the investors by The Times, she said, she had no idea that they had selected the relatives of Wen Jiabao.

The review of the corporate and regulatory records, which covers 1992 to 2012, found no holdings in Mr. Wen’s name. And it was not possible to determine from the documents whether he recused himself from any decisions that might have affected his relatives’ holdings, or whether they received preferential treatment on investments.

For much of his tenure, Wen Jiabao has been at the center of rumors and conjecture about efforts by his relatives to profit from his position. Yet until the review by The Times, there has been no detailed accounting of the family’s riches.

His wife, Zhang Beili, is one of the country’s leading authorities on jewelry and gemstones and is an accomplished businesswoman in her own right. By managing state diamond companies that were later privatized, The Times found, she helped her relatives parlay their minority stakes into a billion-dollar portfolio of insurance, technology and real estate ventures.

The couple’s only son sold a technology company he started to the family of Hong Kong’s richest man, Li Ka-shing, for $10 million, and used another investment vehicle to establish New Horizon Capital, now one of China’s biggest private equity firms, with partners like the government of Singapore, according to records and interviews with bankers.

The prime minister’s younger brother, Wen Jiahong, controls $200 million in assets, including wastewater treatment plants and recycling businesses, the records show.

As prime minister, Mr. Wen has staked out a position as a populist and a reformer, someone whom the state-run media has nicknamed “the People’s Premier” and “Grandpa Wen” because of his frequent outings to meet ordinary people, especially in moments of crisis like natural disasters.

While it is unclear how much the prime minister knows about his family’s wealth, State Department documents released by the WikiLeaks organization in 2010 included a cable that suggested Mr. Wen was aware of his relatives’ business dealings and unhappy about them.

“Wen is disgusted with his family’s activities, but is either unable or unwilling to curtail them,” a Chinese-born executive working at an American company in Shanghai told American diplomats, according to the 2007 cable.

China’s ‘Diamond Queen’

It is no secret in China’s elite circles that the prime minister’s wife, Zhang Beili, is rich, and that she has helped control the nation’s jewelry and gem trade. But her lucrative diamond businesses became an off-the-charts success only as her husband moved into the country’s top leadership ranks, the review of corporate and regulatory records by The Times found.

A geologist with an expertise in gemstones, Ms. Zhang is largely unknown among ordinary Chinese. She rarely travels with the prime minister or appears with him, and there are few official photographs of the couple together. And while people who have worked with her say she has a taste for jade and fine diamonds, they say she usually dresses modestly, does not exude glamour and prefers to wield influence behind the scenes, much like the relatives of other senior leaders.

The State Department documents released by WikiLeaks included a suggestion that Mr. Wen had once considered divorcing Ms. Zhang because she had exploited their relationship in her diamond trades. Taiwanese television reported in 2007 that Ms. Zhang had bought a pair of jade earrings worth about $275,000 at a Beijing trade show, though the source — a Taiwanese trader — later backed off the claim and Chinese government censors moved swiftly to block coverage of the subject in China, according to news reports at the time.

“Her business activities are known to everyone in the leadership,” said one banker who worked with relatives of Wen Jiabao. The banker said it was not unusual for her office to call upon businesspeople. “And if you get that call, how can you say no?”

Zhang Beili first gained influence in the 1990s, while working as a regulator at the Ministry of Geology. At the time, China’s jewelry market was still in its infancy.

While her husband was serving in China’s main leadership compound, known as Zhongnanhai, Ms. Zhang was setting industry standards in the jewelry and gem trade. She helped create the National Gemstone Testing Center in Beijing, and the Shanghai Diamond Exchange, two of the industry’s most powerful institutions.

In a country where the state has long dominated the marketplace, jewelry regulators often decided which companies could set up diamond-processing factories, and which would gain entry to the retail jewelry market. State regulators even formulated rules that required diamond sellers to buy certificates of authenticity for any diamond sold in China, from the government-run testing center in Beijing, which Ms. Zhang managed.

As a result, when executives from Cartier or De Beers visited China with hopes of selling diamonds and jewelry here, they often went to visit Ms. Zhang, who became known as China’s “diamond queen.”

“She’s the most important person there,” said Gaetano Cavalieri, president of the World Jewelry Confederation in Switzerland. “She was bridging relations between partners — Chinese and foreign partners.”

As early as 1992, people who worked with Ms. Zhang said, she had begun to blur the line between government official and businesswoman. As head of the state-owned China Mineral and Gem Corporation, she began investing the state company’s money in start-ups. And by the time her husband was named vice premier, in 1998, she was busy setting up business ventures with friends and relatives.

The state company she ran invested in a group of affiliated diamond companies, according to public records. Many of them were run by Ms. Zhang’s relatives — or colleagues who had worked with her at the National Gemstone Testing Center.

In 1993, for instance, the state company Ms. Zhang ran helped found Beijing Diamond, a big jewelry retailer. A year later, one of her younger brothers, Zhang Jianming, and two of her government colleagues personally acquired 80 percent of the company, according to shareholder registers. Beijing Diamond invested in Shenzhen Diamond, which was controlled by her brother-in-law, Wen Jiahong, the prime minister’s younger brother.

Among the successful undertakings was Sino-Diamond, a venture financed by the state-owned China Mineral and Gem Corporation, which she headed. The company had business ties with a state-owned company managed by another brother, Zhang Jiankun, who worked as an official in Jiaxing, Ms. Zhang’s hometown, in Zhejiang Province.

In the summer of 1999, after securing agreements to import diamonds from Russia and South Africa, Sino-Diamond went public, raising $50 million on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The offering netted Ms. Zhang’s family about $8 million, according to corporate filings.

Although she was never listed as a shareholder, former colleagues and business partners say Ms. Zhang’s early diamond partnerships were the nucleus of a larger portfolio of companies she would later help her family and colleagues gain a stake in.

The Times found no indication that Wen Jiabao used his political clout to influence the diamond companies his relatives invested in. But former business partners said that the family’s success in diamonds, and beyond, was often bolstered with financial backing from wealthy businessmen who sought to curry favor with the prime minister’s family.

“After Wen became prime minister, his wife sold off some of her diamond investments and moved into new things,” said a Chinese executive who did business with the family. He asked not to be named because of fear of government retaliation. Corporate records show that beginning in the late 1990s, a series of rich businessmen took turns buying up large stakes in the diamond companies, often from relatives of Mr. Wen, and then helped them reinvest in other lucrative ventures, like real estate and finance.

According to corporate records and interviews, the businessmen often supplied accountants and office space to investment partnerships partly controlled by the relatives.

“When they formed companies,” said one businessman who set up a company with members of the Wen family, “Ms. Zhang stayed in the background. That’s how it worked.”

The Only Son

Late one evening early this year, the prime minister’s only son, Wen Yunsong, was in the cigar lounge at Xiu, an upscale bar and lounge at the Park Hyatt in Beijing. He was having cocktails as Beijing’s nouveau riche gathered around, clutching designer bags and wearing expensive business suits, according to two guests who were present.

In China, the children of senior leaders are widely believed to be in a class of their own. Known as “princelings,” they often hold Ivy League degrees, get V.I.P. treatment, and are even offered preferred pricing on shares in hot stock offerings.

They are also known as people who can get things done in China’s heavily regulated marketplace, where the state controls access. And in recent years, few princelings have been as bold as the younger Mr. Wen, who goes by the English name Winston and is about 40 years old.

A Times review of Winston Wen’s investments, and interviews with people who have known him for years, show that his deal-making has been extensive and lucrative, even by the standards of his princeling peers.

State-run giants like China Mobile have formed start-ups with him. In recent years, Winston Wen has been in talks with Hollywood studios about a financing deal.

Concerned that China does not have an elite boarding school for Chinese students, he recently hired the headmasters of Choate and Hotchkiss in Connecticut to oversee the creation of a $150 million private school now being built in the Beijing suburbs.

Winston Wen and his wife, moreover, have stakes in the technology industry and an electric company, as well as an indirect stake in Union Mobile Pay, the government-backed online payment platform — all while living in the prime minister’s residence, in central Beijing, according to corporate records and people familiar with the family’s investments.

“He’s not shy about using his influence to get things done,” said one venture capitalist who regularly meets with Winston Wen.

The younger Mr. Wen declined to comment. But in a telephone interview, his wife, Yang Xiaomeng, said her husband had been unfairly criticized for his business dealings.

“Everything that has been written about him has been wrong,” she said. “He’s really not doing that much business anymore.”

Winston Wen was educated in Beijing and then earned an engineering degree from the Beijing Institute of Technology. He went abroad and earned a master’s degree in engineering materials from the University of Windsor, in Canada, and an M.B.A. from the Kellogg School of Business at Northwestern University in Evanston, Ill., just outside Chicago.

When he returned to China in 2000, he helped set up three successful technology companies in five years, according to people familiar with those deals. Two of them were sold to Hong Kong businessmen, one to the family of Li Ka-shing, one of the wealthiest men in Asia.

Winston Wen’s earliest venture, an Internet data services provider called Unihub Global, was founded in 2000 with $2 million in start-up capital, according to Hong Kong and Beijing corporate filings. Financing came from a tight-knit group of relatives and his mother’s former colleagues from government and the diamond trade, as well as an associate of Cheng Yu-tung, patriarch of Hong Kong’s second-wealthiest family. The firm’s earliest customers were state-owned brokerage houses and Ping An, in which the Wen family has held a large financial stake.

He made an even bolder move in 2005, by pushing into private equity when he formed New Horizon Capital with a group of Chinese-born classmates from Northwestern. The firm quickly raised $100 million from investors, including SBI Holdings, a division of the Japanese group SoftBank, and Temasek, the Singapore government investment fund.

Under Mr. Wen, New Horizon established itself as a leading private equity firm, investing in biotech, solar, wind and construction equipment makers. Since it began operations, the firm has returned about $430 million to investors, a fourfold profit, according to SBI Holdings.

“Their first fund was dynamite,” said Kathleen Ng, editor of Asia Private Equity Review, an industry publication in Hong Kong. “And that allowed them to raise a lot more money.”

Today, New Horizon has more than $2.5 billion under management.

Some of Winston Wen’s deal-making, though, has attracted unwanted attention for the prime minister.

In 2010, when New Horizon acquired a 9 percent stake in a company called Sihuan Pharmaceuticals just two months before its public offering, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange said the late-stage investment violated its rules and forced the firm to return the stake. Still, New Horizon made a $46.5 million profit on the sale.

Soon after, New Horizon announced that Winston Wen had handed over day-to-day operations and taken up a position at the China Satellite Communications Corporation, a state-owned company that has ties to the Chinese space program. He has since been named chairman.

The Tycoons

In the late 1990s, Duan Weihong was managing an office building and several other properties in Tianjin, the prime minister’s hometown in northern China, through her property company, Taihong. She was in her 20s and had studied at the Nanjing University of Science and Technology.

Around 2002, Ms. Duan went into business with several relatives of Wen Jiabao, transforming her property company into an investment vehicle of the same name. The company helped make Ms. Duan very wealthy.

It is not known whether Ms. Duan, now 43, is related to the prime minister. In a series of interviews, she first said she did not know any members of the Wen family, but later described herself as a friend of the family and particularly close to Zhang Beili, the prime minister’s wife. As happened to a handful of other Chinese entrepreneurs, Ms. Duan’s fortunes soared as she teamed up with the relatives and their network of friends and colleagues, though she described her relationship with them involving the shares in Ping An as existing on paper only and having no financial component.

Ms. Duan and other wealthy businesspeople — among them, six billionaires from across China — have been instrumental in getting multimillion-dollar ventures off the ground and, at crucial times, helping members of the Wen family set up investment vehicles to profit from them, according to investment bankers who have worked with all parties.

Established in Tianjin, Taihong had spectacular returns. In 2002, the company paid about $65 million to acquire a 3 percent stake in Ping An before its initial public offering, according to corporate records and Ms. Duan’s graduate school thesis. Five years later, those shares were worth $3.7 billion

The company’s Hong Kong affiliate, Great Ocean, also run by Ms. Duan, later formed a joint venture with the Beijing government and acquired a huge tract of land adjacent to Capital International Airport. Today, the site is home to a sprawling cargo and logistics center. Last year, Great Ocean sold its 53 percent stake in the project to a Singapore company for nearly $400 million.

That deal and several other investments, in luxury hotels, Beijing villa developments and the Hong Kong-listed BBMG, one of China’s largest building materials companies, have been instrumental to Ms. Duan’s accumulation of riches, according to The Times’s review of corporate records.

The review also showed that over the past decade there have been nearly three dozen individual shareholders of Taihong, many of whom are either relatives of Wen Jiabao or former colleagues of his wife.

The other wealthy entrepreneurs who have worked with the prime minister’s relatives declined to comment for this article. Ms. Duan strongly denied having financial ties to the prime minister or his relatives and said she was only trying to avoid publicity by listing others as owning Ping An shares. “The money I invested in Ping An was completely my own,” said Ms. Duan, who has served as a member of the Ping An board of supervisors. “Everything I did was legal.”

Another wealthy partner of the Wen relatives has been Cheng Yu-tung, who controls the Hong Kong conglomerate New World Development and is one of the richest men in Asia, worth about $15 billion, according to Forbes.

In the 1990s, New World was seeking a foothold in mainland China for a sister company that specializes in high-end retail jewelry. The retail chain, Chow Tai Fook, opened its first store in China in 1998.

Mr. Cheng and his associates invested in a diamond venture backed by the relatives of Mr. Wen and co-invested with them in an array of corporate entities, including Sino-Life, National Trust and Ping An, according to records and interviews with some of those involved. Those investments by Mr. Cheng are now worth at least $5 billion, according to the corporate filings. Chow Tai Fook, the jewelry chain, has also flourished. Today, China accounts for 60 percent of the chain’s $4.2 billion in annual revenue.

Mr. Cheng, 87, could not be reached for comment. Calls to New World Development were not returned.

Fallout for Premier

In the winter of 2007, just before he began his second term as prime minister, Wen Jiabao called for new measures to fight corruption, particularly among high-ranking officials.

“Leaders at all levels of government should take the lead in the antigraft drive,” he told a gathering of high-level party members in Beijing. “They should strictly ensure that their family members, friends and close subordinates do not abuse government influence.”

The speech was consistent with the prime minister’s earlier drive to toughen disclosure rules for public servants, and to require senior officials to reveal their family assets.

Whether Mr. Wen has made such disclosures for his own family is unclear, since the Communist Party does not release such information. Even so, many of the holdings found by The Times would not need to be disclosed under the rules since they are not held in the name of the prime minister’s immediate family — his wife, son and daughter.

Eighty percent of the $2.7 billion in assets identified in The Times’s investigation and verified by the outside auditors were held by, among others, the prime minister’s mother, his younger brother, two brothers-in-law, a sister-in-law, daughter-in-law and the parents of his son’s wife, none of whom is subject to party disclosure rules. The total value of the relatives’ stake in Ping An is based on calculations by The Times that were confirmed by the auditors. The total includes shares held by the relatives that were sold between 2004 and 2006, and the value of the remaining shares in late 2007, the last time the holdings were publicly disclosed.

Legal experts said that determining the precise value of holdings in China could be difficult because there might be undisclosed side agreements about the true beneficiaries.

“Complex corporate structures are not necessarily insidious,” said Curtis J. Milhaupt, a Columbia University Law School professor who has studied China’s corporate group structures. “But in a system like China’s, where corporate ownership and political power are closely intertwined, shell companies magnify questions about who owns what and where the money came from.”

Among the investors in the Wen family ventures are longtime business associates, former colleagues and college classmates, including Yu Jianming, who attended Northwestern with Winston Wen, and Zhang Yuhong, a longtime colleague of Wen Jiahong, the prime minister’s younger brother. The associates did not return telephone calls seeking comment.

Revelations about the Wen family’s wealth could weaken him politically.

Next month, at the 18th Party Congress in Beijing, the Communist Party is expected to announce a new generation of leaders. But the selection process has already been marred by one of the worst political scandals in decades, the downfall of Bo Xilai, the Chongqing party boss, who was vying for a top position.

In Beijing, Wen Jiabao is expected to step down as prime minister because he has reached retirement age. Political analysts say that even after leaving office he could remain a strong backstage political force. But documents showing that his relatives amassed a fortune during his tenure could diminish his standing, the analysts said.

“This will affect whatever residual power Wen has,” said Minxin Pei, an expert on Chinese leadership and a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in California.

The prime minister’s supporters say he has not personally benefited from his extended family’s business dealings, and may not even be knowledgeable about the extent of them.

Last March, the prime minister hinted that he was at least aware of the persistent rumors about his relatives. During a nationally televised news conference in Beijing, he insisted that he had “never pursued personal gain” in public office.

“I have the courage to face the people and to face history,” he said in an emotional session. “There are people who will appreciate what I have done, but there are also people who will criticize me. Ultimately, history will have the final say.”

 

 

Why I Bailed on Gold

Why I Bailed on Gold

By Mad Hedge Fund Trader | Thu, 25 October 2012 14:50 | 0

Benefit From the Latest Energy Trends and Investment Opportunities before the mainstream media and investing public are aware they even exist. The Free Oilprice.com Energy Intelligence Report gives you this and much more. Click here to find out more.

This trade has been a real disappointment. Despite seeing the greatest monetary stimulus package in history, gold is now lower than when QE3 was announced. You can do all the research in the world, but when market sentiment and election fears overwhelm you, it does no good.

Having broken the 50-day moving average, it now looks like (GLD) wants to challenge to 200- day moving average at $161.4. That is down another $40 in terms of the spot market for the yellow metal. They don’t call this the barbarous relic for nothing.

In fact, it seems like everything is taking a run at its 200-day moving averages, from gold to silver (SLV), stocks (SPX), small caps (IWM), and the yen (FXY). If the November 7 election is your inflection point, then we have another two weeks of pain to endure, more than I am willing to tolerate.

Now that my hedge for gold is gone, a short position in oil (USO) which I covered on yesterday’s spike down, I was left standing naked, and uncomfortably so in this increasingly brisk autumn. I would rather buy them back on the way up than sacrifice what is already a great year leaning into them on the way down.

Still, we have to trade the market we have, not the one we want or deserve. So I am stopping out of the SPDR Gold Trust Shares (GLD) here. I am too old to lose all my money on a bad trade and then plead for my old job back as an entry level trainee at Morgan Stanley. Besides, they probably wouldn’t have me back anyway.

I will revisit this trade in the future. QE3 is still in-force and should work. But we need to get yearend profit taking and the election out of the way. The continued slowdown in China isn’t helping. Rumors are European gold sales to collateralize sovereign bond issues are bogus, as they are limited by treaty to selling only 400 tons a year. But in these conditions traders will take flight on even chatter they know to be wrong.

Many investors probably want to see the monetary expansion in the flesh, which usually lags by a couple of months, before that increase their positions in the barbarous relic. Watch the monthly data from the Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

By. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

 

 

 

The Best American President

From Intelligent Life Magazine

 

The Big Question: partisan, ruthless, passionate—Jefferson, argues David Rennie, was an indispensable president…

The spring of 1804 marked the peak of Thomas Jefferson’s long career. Nearing the mid-point of his time as president (3rd president, 1801-09), he had just snapped up a vast tract of land from a cash-strapped Napoleon, doubling America’s size at a cost of some three cents an acre. A punitive campaign against the Barbary powers was proving wildly popular, as the fledgling American navy inflicted shock and awe on foes in north Africa.

Then came a series of letters from Abigail Adams, wife of the man Jefferson had unseated from the presidency—letters that might have unmanned a less confident figure. Abigail accused Jefferson, who had served as vice-president to her husband, of betraying the fraternal principles of the American revolution. Not only had Jefferson sponsored muck-raking journalists to spread “foulest falsehoods” against her husband during the election of 1800; she also accused him of ditching the detachment proper to a national leader and of being a “party man”, actually campaigning for his own victory.

Jefferson denied it all, but the charges were true. His predecessors Washington and Adams aspired to be virtuous magistrates, wielding power in the public interest. Jefferson was America’s first politician-president: partisan, ruthless, passionate, and capable of outrageous hypocrisies. He served not some abstract republic but the people, in all their raucous, distrustful, disputatious individuality. While safely ensconced in Paris as his country’s envoy, he had cheered a bloody anti-tax revolt at home, observing: “I like a little rebellion now and then. It is like a storm in the atmosphere.”

His suspicion of centralised power had consequences for ill as well as good. His creed of “states’ rights”, advanced as an argument against censorship and repression, would later become the bedrock of the Southern case for preserving slavery. His own ambivalence towards slavery—arguing for abolition in principle while ducking concrete chances to restrict its practice, including on his own estates—has toppled him from modern rankings of the greatest presidents. The best that can be said of his contortions is that they were born of wide-eyed terror and a guilty conscience, rather than the self-serving delusions of divinely ordered superiority that comforted most slave-owners. He trembled for his country when he contemplated slavery’s injustice. Yet he could see no peaceful end to the practice, imagining freed slaves wreaking bloody revenge unless exiled far away.

He thought big and was lucky: two very American virtues. His time in office anchored in place the form of argumentative, popular democracy that bears his name, and thus modern American politics itself—the worst and best sort there is. Jefferson was not the greatest man ever to serve as president. But his was an indispensable presidency.

David Rennie is the Lexington columnist for The Economist

 

 

 

 

 

An Interesting Approach to Retirement

A friend and client began doing this last April.  This article makes doing this seem quite attractive.

The Let’s-Sell-Our-House-And-See-the-World Retirement

How one couple walked away from all they owned and are putting down new roots— one country at a time.

By Lynne Martin | The Wall Street Journal – Mon, Oct 22, 2012 10:20 AM EDT

  • The Wall Street Journal – Martin Family

 

I’m 70 years old. My husband, Tim, is 66. For most of our lives, each of us lived and worked in California. Today, our home is wherever we and our 30-inch suitcases are.

In short, we’re senior gypsies. In early 2011 we sold our house in California and moved the few objects we wanted to keep into a 10-by-15-foot storage unit. Since then, we have lived in furnished apartments and houses in Mexico, Argentina, Florida, Turkey, France, Italy and England. In the next couple of months, we will live in Ireland and Morocco before returning briefly to the U.S. for the holidays.

As I write this, we have settled into a darling one-bedroom apartment a hundred yards from the River Thames, a 25-minute train ride from the heart of London. We have a knack for moving in. Within a few minutes of plunking down our belongings in new digs, we have made it our own: The alarm clock is beside the bed; my favorite vegetable peeler and instant-read thermometer are in the kitchen; and our laptop computers are hooked up and humming. Together we begin learning how to make the appliances cooperate.

 

The Martins at Notre Dame (Martin Family)

Given all that, I suppose a better way to describe us is gypsies who like to put down roots. At least for a month or two.

Why we’re doing this is simple: My husband and I—in a heart-to-heart conversation during a trip to Mexico—realized that both of us are happier when we’re on the road. We enjoy excellent health and share a desire to see the world in bigger bites than a three-week vacation allows. The notion of living like the locals in other countries thrilled us, and after almost 18 months of living “home free,” we are still delighted with our choice. Even a “cocooning” day is more interesting in Paris or Istanbul.

How we’re doing this is more complicated. But we think our plan would work for many retirees with a reasonably healthy nest egg. A budget on the road—as in a stationary life—depends on how a person prioritizes expenditures and what kind of lifestyle he or she wishes to pursue. Someone who needs a large wardrobe or thrives on giving lavish dinner parties wouldn’t find our life appealing. (Rented places seldom offer much in the way of attractive dinnerware.)

We certainly have moments when we question our sanity. Being up to our knees in water, completely lost in the middle of a torrential rainstorm in Istanbul, or discovering that we have locked ourselves out on a third-floor Paris balcony does give us pause.

But we’ve learned three things. First, coping with new situations and making complicated travel plans even as we’re on the road keep us sharp.

Second, we aren’t alone. We meet fellow retirees on a regular basis, some who are taking extended vacations, others who are leading a life similar to ours, and some who have settled permanently overseas. A man I met early on in our travels said to me, “There are a lot of us out there who have figured it out.”

Third and most important, the rewards far outweigh the risks. The moments when we glance out “our” living-room window at Florence’s skyline or turn a corner in “our” neighborhood and see the tip of the Eiffel Tower winking at us make the scary times worthwhile.

Taking the Plunge

Becoming international nomads sounded appealing, but we first had to find a way to afford such a lifestyle. Serious number-crunching showed that selling our home in California would allow us to live comfortably almost anyplace in the world. Not having property taxes or a roof that needs fixing can pay for a lot of train rides.

A few specifics about money. Our financial adviser sends us about $6,000 a month, generated from investments. We also collect Social Security and a small pension. We have a “slush fund” of about $20,000, which allows us to make advance deposits—for housing, cruises, flights, hotels and so forth—without affecting our cash flow.

We follow some simple strategies to keep our budget in line. Stays in more expensive locations, like Paris or London, are balanced by living in less pricey countries like Mexico, Turkey or Portugal. We dine out several times a week but eat at home much of the time. I like to cook, and food shopping is a great way to learn about a country. (Finding baking soda in Buenos Aires isn’t nearly as simple as it sounds.)

People certainly could live on less than we do. Accommodations are a good place to start; the cost of rentals overseas varies considerably with size, season, location and amenities.

And when all else fails, walking and gawking are free everywhere.

Ocean of Opportunity

Although we have used airplanes, trains, buses, taxis, cars and ferries, our favorite means of transportation is now trans-Atlantic repositioning voyages.

When cruise lines move their ships seasonally, they offer big discounts. Not many people can spare several weeks in the off-season to cross the ocean. But it’s perfect for us because we not only reach our destination, but we also are housed, fed and pampered for more than two weeks each time. Traveling by ship, we arrive in sync with local time and get a quick peek at interesting places that we probably wouldn’t choose for an extended visit.

We are not married to any particular cruise line. Tim shops for the best deal he can find that fits into our schedule, although we sometimes schedule around the cruises. Prices vary. In May, our Atlantic crossing—16 nights with an ocean-view room—cost about $2,500 for the two of us. That included all of our food, and a wine package for me. Our return trip in November from Barcelona to Miami with the same cruise line will cost about the same.

Our repositioning bookings extend into 2014 and form the base from which the rest of our travels plans will grow. At the moment, we have reservations for next year to live in Portugal, Spain, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Russia. We are already confirmed for a Paris apartment for June/July 2014.

In our experience, vrbo.com and homeaway.com are the most reliable sources for short-term rentals. They offer a wide range of properties to fit almost any budget, and because we usually stay at least a month in each place, we can sometimes negotiate a slightly better deal.

Settling In

We have had the best luck renting properties whose owners live locally. They offer information about transportation and shopping, grant reasonable special requests and are usually quick to correct any shortcomings. When I mentioned to our apartment owner in Paris that the pots and pans were a bit tired, she appeared the very next day with a new set of cookware and two wonderful stainless-steel frying pans.

Of course, challenges await us at each destination. A partial list: learning how to negotiate the grocery-store routine; using local transportation; connecting to the Internet; getting decent haircuts; operating heating and cooling systems; deciphering exotic DVD players.

Producing meals in an unfamiliar kitchen is often a particular challenge; microwave instructions in French or Turkish can considerably delay meal preparation, And every washer/dryer we encounter presents a whole new group of mysterious settings.

So Far, So Wonderful

Connecting with people we would never have encountered in our regular lives is the most thrilling part of our lifestyle.

In Paris, my favorite neighborhood cheese vendor chose a slice of Brie that he guaranteed would melt perfectly at the precise time our guests arrived, and it did; we met two brilliant young Serbian educators and an internationally known Italian poet at a dinner party on a terrace overlooking Florence; and the owner of a gorgeous 16th-century hotel where we were staying in Kusadasi, Turkey, whiled away an afternoon with me playing fast and furious backgammon. Such moments make the uncomfortable times—like being stuck in a London traffic jam while still learning to drive a stick-shift car on the left side—more than worthwhile.

We also enjoy the freedom of not being weighed down by our “things.” Indeed, one of the benefits of living home-free is that people we meet on the road are interested in us and could care less about our house, our antiques, our art or other possessions. It’s a remarkably forthright way to relate to others.

Most days we’re up by 8 a.m., and we read our newspapers online with our coffee. If it’s a “tourist” day, we try to get out in the morning before the crowds fill up the museum, historic site or event we’re bound for. Sometimes we just attend to life with grocery or clothes shopping, or catching up on our laundry and our reading.

Strolling along the Thames on the way to have a haircut turns a mundane chore into an event, and many times we enjoy a chat with an interesting stranger along the way. My husband devotes some time every day to making travel plans for the future and writing a novel, and I try to work regularly on my blog, homefreeadventures.com. Many evenings we watch our favorite shows or a movie we’ve rented online, and we usually stay up too late, just as we used to do at home.

Online Connection

Since we have eliminated homeownership, we have few bills to pay. We use an online bill-paying service, and we buy almost everything by credit card so we can rack up mileage rewards. One of our daughters receives the mail, which has dwindled to almost nothing.

A good Internet connection is essential. Our computers link us with family and friends, help us plan future travels, and are our source of entertainment in places where movies and television in English are elusive. Each of us has a laptop and an iPhone, and our Kindles house our library and travel books.

We have Medicare and supplemental plans, and when we return to the U.S., we see our doctors for annual checkups. We also have international health insurance covering medical emergencies and evacuations. The plan has a big deductible to help reduce our overhead, since our experiences with health-care providers abroad have been very positive. For instance, Tim awoke one morning in Mexico with raging flu symptoms. A doctor was at his bedside within the hour, administered an injection and gave us a prescription. He charged about $50, and Tim recovered quickly.

Of course, we miss our family and friends terribly, but they have forgiven us for leaving and welcome us enthusiastically when we rent a house near them for a visit. Even our financial adviser has grudgingly admitted that our plan is working well.

For us, giving up 2,500 square feet of gracious California living for a 500-square-foot apartment in Paris or Istanbul is more than a fair trade-off. In place of our heavy-duty gas stove, big-name pots and pans and enormous refrigerator, we now find ourselves using Barbie-size sinks, bar fridges and some pretty sketchy cookware. We share bathrooms with one sink and watch movies on a 13-inch computer screen.

At the same time, we enjoy lunches where the paté comes from heaven, drives through the luscious French countryside where even the cows are beautiful, and strolls along the Arno River in Italy for our after-dinner exercise.

We don’t plan to quit until the wheels fall off.

More News from the Canadian Tar Sands

Oil Sands Crude Crashes Through $60 a Barrel

By Frederik Els | Wed, 24 October 2012 20:36 | 0

Benefit From the Latest Energy Trends and Investment Opportunities before the mainstream media and investing public are aware they even exist. The Free Oilprice.com Energy Intelligence Report gives you this and much more. Click here to find out more.

The price oil sands producers receive fell to $48 a barrel below the international benchmark after a $4.50 or 21% widening to $25.00 of the spread between the price of Western Canada Select – a blend of heavy oil sands crude and conventional oil – and US crude.

The drop in Canadian heavy oil came as the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) discount to the global oil price in the form of North Sea Brent widened to just under $23 – within shouting distance of the record margin of more than $26 in September 2011.

Brent settled at $107.93 in Europe on Wednesday which translates to an effective price for bitumen-derived oil from Alberta’s oil sands of less than $60 a barrel.

The value of Syncrude, a light oil made from oil sands after undergoing an expensive upgrading process, also plunged on Monday to $0.75 above WTI from a $15.00 premium in September.

The lack of pricing power by Canada’s oil sands players is often blamed on the fact that 99% of exports end up in the US – oil sands producers cannot access new markets in Asia as pipeline projects to the West coast languish in a regulatory morass.

There is no clear timeline for TransCanada’s (NYSE:TRP) Keystone XL to finally cross the border into Canada, that Enbridge’s (TSE:ENB) Northern Gateway pipelines is built at all is an ever diminishing prospect and even Kinder Morgan proposal to expand its existing pipeline going into Vancouver, is facing fierce opposition.

Apart from the east-west pipeline delays there is also the strange situation that the populous centers in the eastern part of the vast country import 60% of their needs and pay global prices. There is talk of converting an existing gas pipeline to carry Alberta oil to the east, but at this point that’s all it is; talk.

And even if these projects do come off the ground Alberta producers like Suncor (TSX:SU  NYSE:SU), Cenovus (TSX:CVE  NYSE: CVE) and Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO  NYSE:IMO) would still find it hard to compete.

Bitumen is expensive to extract, upgrade and refine and cannot compete with the many new shale oil plays which have pushed US production to its highest level in a decade.

Production in the US particularly from the Bakken basin – unlike WCC Bakken oil attracts a premium to WTI – in North Dakota will see the country ramp up current output of 7.8 million barrels/day to 10.9 million barrels over the next few years. Bakken is also competing for pipeline and refinery contracts with Alberta.

Apart from the boom in US production, and a strong currency, Alberta’s oil sands players are also threatened by escalating costs according to a recent report by Wood Mackenzie that shows “break-even costs for building new steam-driven projects are in the $65-$70 a barrel range and mining developments need at least $90-$100 oil.”

Existing project can still make money at $45 a barrel and at today’s prices SAGD or steam-assisted gravity drainage projects still stand a chance to get off the drawing board, but a full fifth of oil sands projects – those that rely on conventional mining methods – are not nearly viable.

Just today a Canadian think-tank came up with new numbers to show the impact of the oil sands on Canada’s economy:

Alberta’s oil sands will be responsible for creating 880,000 person-years of employment.

Beyond the employment impacts, oil sands-related investment is expected to generate government revenues of $79.4 billion ($45.3 billion in federal revenues and $34.1 for provinces) between 2012 and 2035, on an inflation-adjusted basis.

If the current trend persists these figures may still prove far too optimistic.

By. Frik Els

A Desperate Candidate

 

OCTOBER 23, 2012

MITT ROMNEY AND THE AHMADINEJAD PERP WALK

POSTED BY ALEX KOPPELMAN

 

Iran isn’t an easy subject for Mitt Romney. He wants to look tough; he needs to attack President Obama, to suggest that there was some miracle solution Obama could have found that would have stopped Iran’s nuclear program by now, something Obama refused to do because he’s too weak—but that Romney would do the day he was sworn in to office. But Romney also knows, presumably, that the most obvious something is war, or a significant use of force, and he’s not going to touch that idea, not in a Presidential campaign, and not at a time when Americans are sick of George W. Bush’s adventures in the Middle East.

But Romney’s found a way out of his problem—or something he apparently thinks is worth trying. During the final Presidential debate on Monday night, in the midst of an answer on Iran that made it clear his real plan would be to continue and extend Obama’s policy, he said,

I’d make sure that Ahmadinejad is indicted under the Genocide Convention. His words amount to genocide incitation. I would indict him for it.

From a political perspective, this isn’t half bad. It lets Romney present himself as a man of action, and helps him project an air of—to borrow two of his favorite words—strong leadership, while committing him to nothing at all.

It’s easy to promise an indictment of Ahmadinejad. It might even be possible to actually indict him, whether in an American court or an international tribunal. An indictment means little, though, if it doesn’t end in a trial, conviction, and—most important—punishment, and that last part doesn’t happen if Ahmadinejad isn’t in custody.

There’s only a handful of imaginable ways to get Ahmadinejad in custody: one, the Iranian regime falls, and a new government hands him over for trial—a scenario in which the whole exercise becomes sort of a moot point, anyway; two, after he leaves office, and with the threat of trial hanging over his head, he’s stupid enough to travel to a country likely to arrest and extradite him; three, the United Nations or a similar international organization goes into Iran and gets him; or, four, the United States or Israel goes in and gets him.

We can probably dismiss that fourth option out of hand. Violating Iran’s sovereignty like that would surely lead to a larger armed conflict, and then there’s no point bothering with the Ahmadinejad show trial. For now, the Romney team—which is barely even pretending to have thought this through—seems to be indicating that it’s the third option that would prevail. But if you think that Romney and his advisers seriously believe that going through the U.N. is the best way of taking down Ahmadinejad, well, I have a bridge from Iran to the Mediterranean I’d like to talk with you about.

It’s not really even clear where Romney would like to see Ahmadinejad indicted and tried. Maybe he means the U.S. (though it’s hard to see Ahmadinejad as the next Noriega), but one of his advisers reportedly suggested that he actually had the “World Court” in mind. That’s probably an allusion to the International Criminal Court, though the term usually refers to the International Court of Justice, which doesn’t handle criminal matters.

Nor is it clear what, exactly, Romney would indict Ahmadinejad for. “I thought he meant in terms of what’s going on internally in Iran,” John Sununu, a top Romney surrogate, told Talking Points Memo. In context, though, Romney appears to be referring to Ahmadinejad’s threats toward Israel and the Jewish people, though in that case there has been no actual genocide committed. But the Rome Statute, which established the International Criminal Court, does make “direct and public incitement to commit genocide” a crime, and there wouldn’t necessarily have to be an actual genocide committed for incitement to be prosecutable. In the U.S., the Proxmire Act also makes “direct and public” incitement to genocide a crime, but there are legitimate questions about whether a prosecution of someone under the Act—especially in a case where a genocide hasn’t been committed—would survive a constitutional challenge.

Some liberal commentators would tell you that Romney’s proposal also contradicts his party’s stance on the International Criminal Court. That’s not really true—as Foreign Policys David Bosco noted in a sharp piece Tuesday, Romney’s going against his adviser John Bolton, but not against the larger G.O.P. establishment. George W. Bush and his Administration favored the I.C.C. when it could be useful to them and the U.S., though they opposed the idea of it having jurisdiction over Americans.

Still, even without a philosophical objection to the court standing in the way, and assuming that Ahmadinejad could somehow be arrested and detained without any real effort or consequences, there would be another real obstacle to overcome. Bosco observes:

Iran is not an ICC member and so the court would only have jurisdiction if the UN Security Council created it (highly unlikely given Moscow and Beijing’s veto power). Even if a Security Council referral happened, the ICC prosecutor has discretion over whether and against whom to bring charges. Fiery rhetoric alone almost certainly would not convince the prosecutor to take action.

Maybe not, but fiery rhetoric, used the right way, can impact a Presidential election. For now, on this subject, that’s all Romney seems to be really concerned with.

Illustration by Tom Bachtell.

 

 

Read more http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/10/mitt-romney-and-the-ahmadinejad-perp-walk.html#ixzz2AD8i42ap